As the $100,000 mark comes into sight, bulls have set their sights on even higher targets—not just historical highs but also important milestones ahead.
In this context, Standard Chartered Bank's Global Digital Asset Research Director Geoffrey Kendrick predicted in a report released on Monday (28) that Bitcoin is about to welcome the next wave of price increase.
He proposed several indicators supporting this judgment: first, the U.S. Treasury yield curve premium (highly correlated with Bitcoin prices) has reached a 12-year high, possibly indicating bullish sentiment for Bitcoin; secondly, trading session analysis shows that U.S. investors are actively seeking non-U.S. assets, particularly evident since Trump previously announced a 90-day tariff grace period for all countries except China.
Moreover, Asian investors have started buying Bitcoin, which further strengthens the upward momentum. At the same time, 'whale' investors holding over 1,000 Bitcoins continue to accumulate even during market downturns, consistent with their buying behavior during previous major market movements; lastly, the ETF fund flow over the past week shows that investors are shifting from gold to Bitcoin, highlighting Bitcoin's appeal as a safe-haven asset.
Kendrick further pointed out that Bitcoin's main role in investment portfolios is as a hedge against risks in the existing financial system, which he believes is more effective compared to gold. He stated that Bitcoin's decentralized nature allows it to perform better in addressing financial system risks, while gold is better suited to combat geopolitical risks.
Based on the above analysis, Kendrick is extremely optimistic about Bitcoin's price performance, predicting that Bitcoin will reach a historic high of $120,000 in the second quarter of 2025 and maintain his bullish outlook for Bitcoin to surge to $200,000 by the end of 2025. He emphasized that the upcoming U.S. 13F holdings report in mid-May may show long-term buying by pension funds and sovereign wealth funds, coupled with the potential expectation of U.S. stablecoin legislation passing, which could extend Bitcoin's bullish momentum into the summer.
The once unattainable Bitcoin million-dollar ($1,000,000) target is no longer just a fantasy; some analysts even believe this historic moment could come sooner than expected.
On April 28, Bitcoin experienced a sharp correction, dropping $2,000 to $93,500. This price fluctuation was highly synchronized with the decline in U.S. Treasury yields, indicating that traders are seeking relatively safer assets.
While Bitcoin traders are moderately satisfied with the 6% increase over the past week, there remains uncertainty in the market regarding why Bitcoin has never been able to stabilize above $95,000.
Bitcoin has repeatedly failed to maintain its price above $95,000, seemingly related to broader macroeconomic concerns. Additionally, Bitcoin has yet to successfully decouple from stock market trends, indicating that investors are not entirely convinced of its effectiveness as a safe-haven asset during potential economic downturns.
Additionally, there are concerns that the recent momentum in keeping Bitcoin's price above $90,000 is largely driven by Strategy's $4.28 billion purchase of BTC since mid-March. The previously approved common stock issuance plan has already used up 97%, raising doubts about the long-term sustainability of Michael Saylor's continuous accumulation strategy.
In the past two weeks, Bitcoin has rebounded nearly 30% from its lowest point, yet its Google search volume remains low. This round of Bitcoin's rise has low retail participation, mainly driven by institutions.
The upcoming closing monthly price of BTC is also above last week's weekly and yearly lines. If it can maintain above $93,600 this week, it will further increase the probability of a surge in May. Conversely, if it falls below this level, it could weaken the likelihood of strengthening in the second half of the year. Whether it can stabilize in the coming days will provide key confidence for the market trend.
The daily and short-term charts failed to break through the $96,000 resistance level, confirming last week's expectations of the resistance zone. A correction signal indicates that short-term upward movement needs to accumulate more momentum, and it's advisable to avoid chasing high positions and to take profits promptly to mitigate the risk of being trapped.
Currently, Trump's policies, the U.S. debt crisis, funding expectations, and expectations for de-stagflation have not yet been met. If this leads to further increases, the probability of a false bull market hitting new highs and misleading liquidity is quite high.
However, if the previously mentioned issues are resolved or if certain conditions are met, it may lead to a more solid situation, potentially driving a long bull market like gold.
It is noteworthy that BTC is at a critical point of the 120-day bull-bear line, indicating that a big market trend is coming!
It's evident that during the bull-bear line phase, such as the mainstream doubling market in April 2019, the tenfold spot market in mid-2020, the 90% drop in the spot market in mid-2022, and the inscription market at the beginning of 2023, the 120-day line has become a significant bull-bear boundary. While there may seem to be many opportunities within the circle, in reality, it only takes a few weeks to complete a year's market cycle, and it's approaching—watch out for market volatility.
The mainstream has experienced significant volatility over the past two weeks, with M2 warming up and on-chain data rising, indicating that we are about to enter the flood season market.
The flood season market refers to the period from April to June each year, during which BTC miners make substantial profits due to cheap electricity, leading to increased capital inflow into the market, especially as some POW small coins begin to surge. Every year, several 'POW myths' emerge, indicating a warming trend.
