Let’s talk about my views on the current macro market:

1. The roots of the monkey market: a split between soft and hard data, chaotic fundamentals

Typically, the Federal Reserve refers to two types of data when making decisions:

1) Soft data: such as consumer confidence, PMI surveys, and entrepreneur sentiment, which are expectation indicators.

2) Hard data: such as retail sales, actual employment, and industrial production, which are real data that have occurred.

However, there is now a rare situation of soft-hard data split: soft data (confidence, expectations) is rapidly collapsing; hard data (consumption, employment, etc.) superficially still holds up well.

This split directly leads to extreme chaos in the macro environment:

1) The market cannot find a clear path to verify or falsify.

2) Any policy news, tariff direction, or official statements will be magnified as the main driving force.

The result is:

1) The holding period for investors and institutions has significantly shortened.

2) Short-term trading dominated by sentiment and technicals has increased. (The golden age of traders)

In summary: the fundamentals have not provided direction, so news has become the only direction.

2. The U.S. is undergoing narrative reconstruction: high volatility, weak trends

From a broader narrative perspective, a deeper core narrative is: the huge transformation from "America is invincible" to "America is also fragile."

This transformation itself signifies higher volatility and more frequent local severe fluctuations. The split between soft and hard data actually reflects the middle ground where the old world is not dead, and the new narrative is not established.

Thus, the narrative reconstruction period = rising volatility, disappearing trends.

Therefore, whether it is the U.S. stock market or the cryptocurrency sector, both have recently shown highly similar characteristics: the market moves very slowly and fragmented, with both rises and falls lacking sustainability;

Altcoins are lying still, while BTC recovers on its own but without a diffusion effect. The contract trading environment is extremely tricky, frequently shaking out positions, and even pure arbitrage returns are shrinking.