Bitcoin Running Flat (declining in a sideways manner).

Characteristics are:

Wave A declines significantly (109,500 ➔ 74,000)

Wave B rebounds strongly, close to or slightly exceeding the starting point of Wave A

Wave C declines very shallowly, not making new lows, only slightly probing down or time oscillating.

🔥 Reasons:

1) The narrative and consensus around BTC are shifting; with the crisis in US bonds and the dollar, it has formed a divergence from other risk assets.

2) Weekly super trend: 74,000 shows extremely strong support, whereas US stock indices have all broken below their corresponding positions. This position can be considered the bull-bear dividing line. If it breaks below, it will fully indicate a bear market expectation.

3) The decline of US economic data will gradually become apparent, while inflation expectations will likely lead the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates. After the debt ceiling was raised in Q3, a scenario similar to the "stagflation" of the 70s-80s may occur. Stagflation will simultaneously push up gold/BTC/stocks. Historically, stagflation has been the best period for asset price growth.

Wave B's peak occurs from late April to early May.

Wave C will slowly decline or consolidate until early June.

In terms of space:

The pullback may be very small, only returning to the 85,000 range?

It is difficult to break below the 74,000 bottom, and it may not even touch 74,000 at all.

✅ Current position:

In the range of 99,400-102,500, consider reducing positions by 10%-20% to lock in profits, but keep the main position. Hedge with puts at key ladder positions.

Running Flat is the easiest to make people emotionally collapse.

It can't rise, and it won't fall,

It wears you down to the point of questioning life, and then suddenly sparks the next round of a major bull market.