Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading around $95,000, while still showing sensitivity to US economic data. Accordingly, the economic figures released this week could trigger volatility in the crypto market.
From consumer confidence indices to the health of the labor market, these economic indicators can influence investor sentiment and impact cryptocurrency price fluctuations.
Notable US economic data this week
Below are US economic indicators that could directly affect the portfolios of traders and cryptocurrency investors.
List of US economic indicators | Source: Trading Economics
"As things become chaotic along with the frenzy of tariff policies, consumer confidence plummets, the likelihood of recession increases, and the market becomes increasingly fragile, let me help you see the aspects that the economy is impacting your life," economist Justin Wolfers shared.
Consumer Confidence Index
The Consumer Confidence Report will kick off the list of US economic indicators relevant to the crypto market this week. On Tuesday, the April Consumer Confidence Index released by the Conference Board will reflect households' optimism or pessimism regarding their financial situation.
The figure of 92.9 for March indicates that American consumers have a rather pessimistic view of the economy and personal finances. According to the forecast on MarketWatch, the median for April is 87.4. Typically, high confidence levels are associated with risk appetite, driving inflows into Bitcoin and altcoins.
Conversely, if the figures are below expectations, profit-taking pressure may increase, undermining confidence in the strength of the economy. In the context of global trade tensions, a sudden weakening of consumer confidence could heighten demand for Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset, despite the risks of price volatility still being present.
US Consumer Confidence Chart by Goldman Sachs | Source: Markets and Mayhem
"Soft data is indicating that actual figures will soon decline. Generally, the Consumer Confidence Index will move inversely to the unemployment rate. If this trend repeats itself this time, we may see the unemployment rate rise to around 6% or higher," Markets and Mayhem commented.
JOLTS Index – Job Openings
This week, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) – tracking recruitment demand – is also among the economic indicators to pay attention to.
The latest JOLTS report (released on April 1) indicated that the February 2025 figures reached 7.6 million job openings, 5.4 million hires, and 5.3 million separations. The next report – updating the March 2025 figures – will be released on Tuesday, with a median forecast of 7.4 million openings.
If the actual figures exceed 7.6 million, this will indicate good economic resilience, boosting risk appetite and supporting Bitcoin along with other risky assets. Strong hiring confidence may mean increased disposable income, thus stimulating investment in crypto.
Conversely, if the figure is below expectations (under 7.4 million), concerns about recession may rise, causing capital flows to seek Bitcoin as a defensive tool.
The crypto market tends to react sensitively to signals from the labor market because these signals directly affect expectations for the Federal Reserve's policy. With the current interest rate at 4.25-4.5%, a tight labor market may cause the Fed to delay interest rate cuts, putting pressure on speculative assets like Bitcoin.
ADP Employment Report
The ADP National Employment Report tracks job growth in the private sector and will be released this Wednesday.
In March 2025, the data showed that the US economy added 155,000 jobs – exceeding experts' expectations – demonstrating the strength of the labor market despite tariff concerns.
If the April figures exceed 160,000, this could spark optimism in the crypto market, as job growth often boosts spending levels and risk appetite. Should the data indicate that the economy continues to grow, Bitcoin may gain upward momentum.
Conversely, if the figures are below last month's 155,000 or below the median forecast of 110,000, concerns about recession may increase, prompting capital flows to seek stablecoins or Bitcoin as safe-haven assets.
Unlike the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, ADP's statistical methodology is based on private payrolls and does not account for public sector jobs, thus providing a clearer view.
As the market focuses on the Fed's moves, ADP data will guide market sentiment ahead of the NFP report on Friday.
Q1 GDP
The preliminary estimate for Q1 2025 GDP will be released this Wednesday. This data is also used to measure the economic growth rate of the US.
GDP growth for Q3 2024 reached 2.8% year-on-year, below expectations due to the impact of the trade deficit. Meanwhile, Q4 2024 recorded a growth of 2.4% after adjusting down the import rate.
If Q1 2025 GDP rises sharply above 3%, this will signal positive economic health, often encouraging investors to boost capital flows into Bitcoin and other risky assets.
However, the crypto market is very sensitive to GDP adjustments as well as expectations for the Fed's interest rate policy. In the context of persistent inflation concerns, stronger GDP growth than the 2.4% of Q4 could dampen expectations for the Fed to cut rates, putting pressure on speculative assets like crypto. Conversely, weak GDP growth could reinforce expectations for easing monetary policies.
PCE Index
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (Core PCE) – the Fed's preferred inflation measure – will also be released this Wednesday, updating March data after the latest report on March 28.
In February 2025, the PCE index rose 2.5% compared to the same period last year. Economists predict that the March figure will slightly decrease to 2.2%, reflecting that price pressures remain but have cooled. A PCE below 2.5% indicates that inflation may be easing, potentially igniting hopes that the Fed will soon cut interest rates, supporting a positive sentiment towards Bitcoin.
However, if the PCE index is above 2.5%, expectations for the Fed tightening policy may increase, putting pressure on the crypto market. The PCE index excluding food and energy prices, which are volatile, provides a more stable view on inflation and is a key factor guiding market sentiment for crypto.
As the market is very sensitive to changes in monetary policy, traders should also pay attention to spending levels on services, as this is an indicator of consumer strength. However, volatility is still difficult to avoid, as the PCE index will shape the Fed's stance.
"The PCE inflation index for March (released on April 30) may fluctuate around 2.1%. The PCE for April (released at the end of May) is expected to be around 2%. Tariffs have an impact, but PCE is the official measure of the Fed. In fact, it is time to cut interest rates, putting political issues aside," fund manager Ophir Gottlieb commented.
Initial Jobless Claims
The Initial Jobless Claims report – released weekly every Thursday – continues to appear on the list of US economic indicators to monitor. This is high-frequency data, reflecting the labor market situation almost in real-time, and the crypto market often reacts quickly to unexpected changes from this data.
In the week ending April 18, the number of initial jobless claims reached 222,000, indicating that the labor market remains strong despite the turmoil from tariff policies. If this week's figure is lower than 222,000, it will signal positive employment conditions, stimulating risk appetite and supporting Bitcoin prices.
Conversely, higher claims than 222,000 could raise concerns about economic weakening, prompting investors to seek stablecoins or Bitcoin to preserve assets. With the Fed closely monitoring labor indicators, a sudden spike in claims could reinforce expectations for interest rate cuts.
Non-Farm Payroll (NFP)
The Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report will be released on Friday. In March 2025, the US government created an additional 228,000 jobs, exceeding expectations, with the unemployment rate stable at 4.2%.
A positive NFP report could drive price increases, as job growth indicates stable consumer purchasing power. Conversely, if the figures are below the median forecast of 130,000, concerns about recession may rise, leading capital flows to Bitcoin as a defensive asset or stablecoins for stability.
With NFP covering about 80% of the workforce contributing to GDP, this is a highly influential indicator for the market. Besides the number of jobs, investors will also pay special attention to wage growth – the current monthly increase of 0.3% indicates potential inflationary pressures, which could limit the rise of crypto.
With the market pricing in the Fed's monetary policy, any surprises from the NFP report could trigger significant volatility.
Bitcoin (BTC) price chart | Source: TradingView
At the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin is fluctuating around $95,321, up slightly by 1.6% in 24 hours and more than 8% in the past week.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Investors should conduct thorough research before making decisions. We are not responsible for your investment decisions.