Does ETH still have a chance? Analyzing ETH's trends from macroeconomic and on-chain data (also applicable to altcoin season)

Although I believe there is still a chance for $ETH, this opportunity may not be now, but rather during two possible phases of monetary easing:

1. In the mid-term of monetary easing, when interest rates decrease, inflation falls, and investors' risk appetite rises, provided that there is no economic recession.

2. In the later stages or the tail end of monetary easing, when interest rates have nearly bottomed out, inflation has returned to below 2% or even lower, and investors' risk appetite increases, preferably after an economic recession has already occurred.

From both a macroeconomic and on-chain perspective, ETH is currently in a bottom range. On-chain data indicates that prices below $1,500 represent a good buying opportunity, while macroeconomic uncertainty could lead to a recession, which does not rule out the possibility of ETH continuing to decline.

On-chain data also shows a trend of increasing ETH holdings among retail investors, whales, and super whales. While not as pronounced as $BTC, there are indeed more on-chain investors buying ETH.

Overall, ETH is very similar to the Russell 2000, both highly reliant on liquidity pairing, so during periods of monetary tightening, there may not be sufficient liquidity available, resulting in slow price increases.