The big one is coming, brothers. Let's analyze it briefly. Trump is eager for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates to keep long-term U.S. Treasury yields below 4.5%. However, the Federal Reserve chairman is ignoring Trump. Trump is now continuing to cut taxes to fulfill his election promises, while also letting the government run out of money and come to a halt, making the situation escalate.

It’s just that short-term debts are about to mature, and the Federal Reserve will either cut interest rates or expand its balance sheet; otherwise, the government will shut down. It happened once in 2020, and the Federal Reserve later expanded its balance sheet to resolve the issue. However, this time the situation is different from last time. Last time it was a pandemic; although expanding the balance sheet resolved the issue, both stocks and bonds suffered. This time the situation has worsened, compounded by the decoupling between China and the U.S. Continuing to cut interest rates or expanding the balance sheet may further exacerbate skyrocketing CPI. The big one is coming; how many people will become rich or poor this time?