One Week Market Outlook: Super Data Week Ignites Global Asset Direction Decision

Policy Fog Gradually Lifts

Market sentiment noticeably improved this week, with two major concerns that had troubled investors (the controversy over the Federal Reserve's independence and the escalation of China-U.S. trade frictions) showing signs of turning. The White House has released positive signals indicating that the Trump administration is actively promoting a phased trade agreement with China, and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin's mild remarks effectively boosted market confidence. Risk assets regained favor with investors, while safe-haven assets like gold and U.S. Treasuries continued to adjust.

Key Data Bombshells

Starting Thursday night, the U.S. will release three major blockbuster data points:

Third Quarter GDP Initial Value (Expected 4.3%)

September PCE Price Index (The inflation indicator most valued by the Federal Reserve)

October Non-Farm Payroll Report (Key focus on hourly wage growth)

These data will directly influence whether the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates in December; currently, the market's bet on a policy shift has reached 49%.

Earnings Season Stress Test

Tech giants like Apple and Amazon will release their earnings reports, which will validate two key issues:

1. Can corporate profits withstand the impact of a high-interest-rate environment?

2. Does the valuation premium brought by the AI concept have performance support?

Currently, 81 companies in the S&P 500 have issued profit warnings, with pessimistic earnings guidance reaching a three-year high.

Cryptocurrency Market Predicament

Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin are caught in a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. On one hand, the cooling expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes are a positive factor; on the other hand, regulators are continuously tightening controls over stablecoins. Notably, the correlation between Bitcoin and U.S. stocks has reached a nearly two-year high, suggesting that volatility in traditional markets may be transmitted to the crypto space.

Intense Bull-Bear Struggle

Although risk assets temporarily warmed up this week, three major hazards remain:

√ U.S. Treasury yields are still at a high of 4.8%

√ Geopolitical black swan lurking (with the Israel-Palestine conflict continuing to escalate)

√ Signs of a corporate debt default wave are beginning to emerge

Market analysts generally believe that if any surprises occur in this week's data, it could trigger severe fluctuations across asset classes, and investors are advised to prepare for hedging.