Before the US stock market opens, a brief analysis of the afternoon trend
At noon, the forecast for the afternoon was a low-volume rise, which was incorrect; there was a significant increase in volume in the afternoon, with 200 million more than in the morning. There is some suspicion that the undercurrents of news might be misleading.
In the afternoon, gold futures fell and then rose by 0.2 points back to 3300, while US Treasuries rose by 1 point. The rise in gold is likely due to the India-Pakistan conflict, while the rise in US Treasuries is harder to predict.
From a technical perspective, there was a significant rise in volume in the afternoon, which was somewhat frightening. The long-short ratio in the 92-96 range remains bullish.
Last week, the US stock market closed with a continuous rise, and BTC ETF rose by more than 3 points. Will today’s opening continue this trend? This remains a question mark.
From the above information, it can be seen that tonight should see a continued upward trend.
However, we cannot rule out a pullback.
We need to consider what circumstances might lead to a pullback.
1. The big player does not want to reveal their cards, and the retail investors are looking to go long at 93-94.
2. Major Wall Street players are unloading, executing trades.
3. Sudden major negative news.
What situations might lead to a sustained rise:
1. New funds entering the market.
2. Lock-up positions being released.
3. Major positive news.
These are the scenarios.
Analyzing the above situation, based on the past, the big player will not refrain from making moves. If the big player were to withhold action, there would not be a sustained rise this afternoon. Welcoming the big player, they might indicate a move and execute trades.
Will the big player crash the market? It’s unlikely, as they need to have cards to keep harvesting.
I don't want to type out the rest of the analysis. There is a probability of a rapid drop turning into a rise. It will not break through the short-term resistance of 98.
