One, market review
The previous prompt warned against the pullback after a top divergence at the BTC 1H level, advising not to chase the rise. The resistance level was at 95166, and after reaching that point, it dropped to a low of 92800, which was basically in line with expectations.
Two, daily trend analysis
1. Overall, the bullish trend of BTC continues, and the large bull market pattern remains unchanged.
2. The resistance created by the previous K-line and moving average patterns still exists, creating some resistance to the price increase.
3. In the short term, the price has broken through various level moving average resistances for 6 days. From a timing perspective, the adjustment is about to enter its final stage.
Three, intraday trend analysis
In summary, although the short-term structure shows strong performance and has the momentum to rise, it is likely to show divergence during the upward movement. However, the previous structural resistance will also limit the extent of the initial rise. Overall, there is a certain probability of showing a pattern of rising first and then falling. Chasing highs during the rally is not wise, but buying on dips after a pullback is feasible.
From the 1H to 4H trend:
● Upwards, the current situation is similar to last Friday, and a slight rise will enter the previous resistance area. If a new high is reached, divergence is likely to occur, making it difficult for the upward trend to continue.
● Downwards, the short-term bullish structure is relatively complete. Once the price adjusts, it is expected to trigger rebound actions during the decline.
From the 15-minute to 30-minute trend:
● The price has broken the MA250 for this period over the weekend, and the MA250 shows a trend of gradually flattening and bending downwards.
● Here, the possibility of continued sideways movement cannot be ruled out, but it is necessary to be cautious of a sharp drop if the price falls below the 15-minute MA250 again. A sharp drop after breaking the 15-minute level is likely to correspond to a buying point after a new low at the 4H level.
Four, trading strategy
Combining the analysis of trends at various levels:
● On the daily level, the bullish trend still exists. During downward adjustments, the market will provide some space for rebound operations. However, during upward movements, structural resistance is quite evident; large funds are needed to break through. It is difficult to make an accurate judgment based solely on technical analysis, and one can only execute based on specific aggressive position strategies.
● Aggressive position:
○ Buy position: Enter at the current price of 94714~92388.
○ Stop loss position: Stop loss at 91666 (1H entity), or rebound after reaching short-term support.
○ Take profit position: Take profit at 97934/101933.
○ Position suggestion: Enter with a small position; for conservative traders, it is advisable to observe temporarily and not participate in this operation.
● Short-term resistance and support:
○ Resistance position: Short-term resistance is in the region of 96194~98485, and breakthrough operations are not recommended.
○ Support position: Short-term support is in the region of 91339~89360. When operating, conduct quick in-and-out trades based on a 1:2 risk-reward ratio; split orders can be used. The second support is in the region of 86688~84123, also using a quick in-and-out strategy.
