Looking back from 2019 to 2024, the crypto industry resembles a grand epic full of suspense, experiencing astonishing rapid development in just a few years.
From foundational public chains like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) to rising stars in the storage sector like Filecoin (FIL) and Chia; from the hot buzz of Swarm (BZZ) to the successive rise of emerging concepts like NFT, Gamefi, and the Metaverse, followed by the inscription craze and the Aleo project of 2023, every year brings forth new concepts, technologies, and projects that emerge like mushrooms after rain.
However, these new phenomena are often like dazzling fireworks; they shine brilliantly when they burst, but leave a mess behind once extinguished. After the market's heat fades, chaos often ensues. My connection with the crypto industry was established as early as 2017 when I first encountered Bitcoin and was attracted to this decentralized digital world. By 2019, I formally delved into this field filled with opportunities and challenges.
At that time, Filecoin was undoubtedly the hottest project in the industry. I, with my consistent cautious attitude, paid special attention to the selection of partners. Fortunately, the two companies I collaborated with in Filecoin business were both reliable enterprises that were diligent and focused.
They have always kept their promises, whether in technology research and development or business delivery, progressing steadily without ever disappointing me. This has also allowed me to avoid many detours on my initial path of crypto investment. This journey is not only my personal investment experience but also a reflection of the ups and downs in the development of the crypto industry. Each explosion and cooling of emerging concepts has deepened my understanding of this industry.
Now, the voices questioning Filecoin are rising, and many people compare it to EOS, which once flourished but has gradually fallen silent, expressing worries about the future prospects of FIL.
However, in my view, Filecoin has indelible highlights: as a solid distributed storage project, it has anchored its lofty goal of practical application from the moment of its inception, and as of now, it has successfully realized the landing of its storage function, firmly occupying a place in the field of encrypted storage.
However, we must clearly recognize that merely achieving storage functionality does not equate to having actual commercial value. Although the project team has always maintained a proactive attitude and continuously promoted the project's development, the technical bottleneck is like an insurmountable mountain, severely hindering Filecoin's further breakthroughs.
Among them, the inability to realize the retrieval function has become a critical issue. Having only storage without efficient retrieval is like having a vast warehouse but being unable to find the key to retrieve items quickly, greatly weakening the project's practicality and market competitiveness. Regarding the future of Filecoin, I believe its fate will be firmly tied to the progress of actual application landing.
If the technical challenges can be successfully overcome, achieving efficient data storage and rapid retrieval, significantly optimizing user experience, while properly addressing various data security issues that may arise in practical applications, and building a complete and mature application ecosystem, then Filecoin still has the potential to shine with great strength, worthy of long-term expectation from investors; conversely, if substantial breakthroughs in technology and application cannot be realized, its future development will undoubtedly fall into obscurity, with uncertain prospects.
Of course, the above opinions are purely personal insights based on years of observation and reflection, and do not constitute any investment advice. The crypto market is ever-changing, and every investment decision must maintain rationality and careful analysis. This journey is not only my personal investment memoir but also a vivid reflection of the ups and downs in the development of the crypto industry. Each rise and fall of emerging concepts deepens my understanding and contemplation of this industry.
Secondly, before Filecoin went on the mainnet, looking back now, it is clear that the project was indeed overly hyped. Many people promoted the 'head mining dividends'; whether there were dividends or not, the early batch did have dividends, with high output and a price surge during a bull market.
Those who sold at the peak indeed got the dividends. However, more people lost their rationality due to the price surge, resulting in being stuck at high positions. Those making money say the project is good, while those losing money say it is not. This is also human nature. In the end, what the Protocol Labs is building is a real landing distributed storage project, genuinely applying blockchain technology; however, the technical bottleneck is there, and breaking through the technological barriers still poses difficulties.
So my personal approach now is to set aside a small portion of my idle funds to hold onto. As for future breakthroughs in Fil technology and its application landing, there may be some returns if it succeeds; if it still cannot land, it's within a range I can accept. We need to view Filecoin with a calm mindset and not add too many filters for ourselves.
Regarding the future of Filecoin, I believe its fate will be firmly tied to the progress of actual application landing. If the technical challenges can be successfully overcome, achieving efficient data storage and rapid retrieval, significantly optimizing user experience, while properly addressing various data security issues that may arise in practical applications, and building a complete and mature application ecosystem, then Filecoin still has the potential to shine with great strength, worthy of long-term expectation from investors.
Conversely, if substantial breakthroughs in technology and application cannot be realized, its future development will undoubtedly fall into obscurity, with uncertain prospects. Of course, the above opinions are purely personal insights based on years of observation and reflection, and do not constitute any investment advice. The crypto market is ever-changing, and every investment decision must maintain rationality and careful analysis. This journey is not only my personal investment memoir but also a vivid reflection of the ups and downs in the development of the crypto industry. Each rise and fall of emerging concepts deepens my understanding and contemplation of this industry.
Throughout the investment journey in the crypto market, many investors have encountered the frustrating 'vicious circle': it seems the market is always watching their actions — when they don't buy, the price remains strong; when they don't sell, the rally is slow to come; once they decide to buy, the price immediately drops; just after they grit their teeth to sell, the market surges, leaving only regrets of 'if only I had held on a bit longer', 'bought too early', 'sold too early'.
What kind of logic is hidden behind this seemingly 'targeted' phenomenon by the market? From a psychological perspective, the 'loss aversion' mentality is a significant motivating factor.
The pain of loss felt by investors far exceeds the joy brought by equivalent gains, leading them to rush to sell out of fear of losses once the price fluctuates slightly after buying; conversely, after selling and seeing the price rise, they regret missing out on potential profits. At the same time, the 'herd effect' also exacerbates the situation. When most people are buying in the market, individuals easily follow the crowd blindly, entering at high prices; when market panic spreads and everyone sells, they get caught up in selling at low prices, thus falling into a vicious cycle of 'buying leads to drops, selling leads to rises'.
At the technical level, the market manipulators' trading strategies have also exacerbated this phenomenon. Manipulators create price fluctuations through capital advantages and professional means, inducing retail investors to chase and sell. For example, during the accumulation phase, they intentionally suppress prices, causing retail investors to sell their holdings out of fear; while in the distribution phase, they raise prices to attract retail investors to buy at high.
Moreover, many investors lack in-depth analysis of market trends and project fundamentals, making decisions based solely on short-term price fluctuations and market news, lacking clear investment strategies and risk control awareness, which is a key reason for frequently falling into operational dilemmas.
In the crypto market, after much struggle, one cannot help but feel a sense of helplessness and alertness when hearing certain remarks. We must be clear: whether participating in cryptocurrency spot trading or entering the contract realm, profit is the core goal. This determines that we are on the path of investment, not falling into the traps of 'speculation' or 'gambling'. Why can some people continuously profit in the market while others repeatedly fail? The key lies in the understanding of the essence of investment.
True investment is based on risk control, aiming for stable appreciation, just like carefully nurturing a sapling, patiently waiting for it to grow strong; whereas 'speculation' attempts to capture the momentary fluctuations of the market, fantasizing about getting rich overnight. High returns are indeed alluring, but they come hand in hand with enormous risks. Focusing solely on returns while ignoring risks is like running blindfolded; it seems to be rushing towards wealth, but in reality, every step is fraught with danger.
In the professional course system for analysts and traders, 'trading psychology' holds a crucial position. It is not merely theoretical teaching but helps investors hone their psychological qualities, ensuring they can strictly execute their trading systems. When the market fluctuates violently, they can overcome fear and greed; when faced with temptation, they can remain clear-headed and restrained. Because in the crypto market, there is no trade that offers 'absolute certainty'.
Those promises of guaranteed profits are often sweet traps that ultimately lead to painful lessons. When working with analysts, they repeatedly emphasize: returns and risks always coexist. Only by establishing the correct investment philosophy and balancing returns and risks can one navigate the crypto market, a realm filled with opportunities and challenges, steadily and far.
