#特朗普税改 (2025 Edition)

Main Contents

1. Continuation and Expansion of 2017 Tax Reform Measures:

Reduce the highest marginal income tax rate from 39.6% to 37%, and attempt to make it permanent.

Maintain the corporate income tax rate at 21%.

Increase the qualified business income (QBI) deduction by 20%.

Plan to eliminate the $10,000 cap on state and local tax (SALT) deductions.

2. New Tax Reduction Measures:

Individuals with an annual income below $150,000 are exempt from federal income tax.

Tip income, overtime pay, and Social Security income are tax-exempt.

Abolish the estate tax.

Compensate for tax losses by increasing import tariffs and establish a 'Foreign Income Revenue Service' to manage tariff revenues.

Fiscal Impact and Controversy

Cost Estimate: The continuation of tax cuts is expected to result in approximately $4.5 trillion reduction in federal tax revenue between 2025 and 2034.

Economic Growth: Long-term GDP growth is projected at 1.1%, but it will only offset about 16% of the tax revenue loss.

Budget Deficit: Without spending cuts, the federal budget deficit may further widen.

Political Challenges

Divergent Opinions within the Republican Party:

Some members advocate cutting social welfare spending to balance the budget.

Others are concerned that cutting benefits will lose voter support.

SALT Deduction Issue:

Republican lawmakers from high-tax states are calling for an increase in the SALT deduction limit to alleviate the tax burden on voters.

Summary

Trump's new tax reform plan focuses on 'reducing the tax burden on middle and low-income groups', aiming to stimulate consumption and economic growth, but faces potential risks of widening fiscal deficits, internal conflicts, and rising prices. Whether it can successfully pass through Congress remains uncertain.