Bitcoin has currently entered a weekly adjustment phase. It is expected to stabilize at $90,000 after a period of consolidation in May. However, influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut schedule, the probability of a reversal to create new highs in the short term is relatively low. The depth of this adjustment exceeds expectations; if the bull market continues, it may peak in September to October rather than ending quickly in June to July. As Wall Street institutions and listed companies dominate the market, BTC is gradually departing from a retail-driven model, and future volatility may decrease (after the crash, it may be difficult to see another extreme scenario of a 50% drop within three months), becoming an asset allocation tool for institutions.
In terms of operations, it is recommended to remain cautious: reduce positions in batches during the late stages of the bull market, avoid heavily buying the dip, and especially be wary of ETH becoming a new tool for exploitation (institutions may shift to speculating on ETH and altcoins).
Recently, focus on macro event risks: U.S. non-farm payroll data, GDP, and the Bank of Japan's decisions may exacerbate volatility, compounded by large unlocks of tokens like SUI and OP, which could lead to severe market fluctuations.
Short-term trend prediction: BTC may pull back to $85,000 to complete the chip turnover; if the momentum builds successfully, it could challenge the $110,000 target in June.
For altcoin layout, it is recommended to focus on the AI track: large funds should allocate to mainstream AI coins (such as FET, RNDR), medium funds should pay attention to AI proxy coins, and small funds can speculate on the AI + Meme concept.
