Is #空投发现指南 starting to release news again? Let’s analyze briefly: Trump is eager for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates to keep the long-term U.S. Treasury yield below 4.5%, but the Federal Reserve Chairman completely ignores Trump. Trump is now continuing to cut taxes to fulfill his election promises, while waiting for the government to run out of money and shut down, which will escalate the situation.

Essentially, short-term debt is about to mature, and the Federal Reserve will either lower interest rates or expand its balance sheet; otherwise, the government will shut down. It happened once in 2020, and the Federal Reserve later expanded its balance sheet to resolve the issue. However, this time the situation is different from last time. Last time it was due to the pandemic. Although expanding the balance sheet solved the problem, it caused a double hit to both bonds and stocks. This time the situation is worse, compounded by the decoupling between China and the U.S., and continuing to lower interest rates or expand the balance sheet may further exacerbate soaring CPI. Let's see what happens.