Altcoin Season Countdown: The Capital Rotation Code and the Foreshadowing of ETH's Comeback
The current market stands at the critical point of sector rotation—BTC's market cap dominance has hit the warning line of 60%. Historical patterns show that if Bitcoin remains within the $38,000 to $42,000 range, altcoins will enter a "pass the parcel" mode.
However, caution is needed as this round of capital flow has shown structural changes.
Why is capital neglecting ETH?
Market Cap Constraints: ETH's circulating market cap has reached $350 billion, needing $35 billion in incremental funds to increase by 10%, while new public chains like APT/FTM could double with just $5 billion in speculative expectations.
Although EIP-1559 has achieved the daily destruction of 2,000 ETH, the total staked amount has surpassed 30 million ETH (annual issuance rate of 2.8%), still lower than Bitcoin's post-halving narrative fatigue with an actual inflation rate of 1.7%.
Concepts like L2 scaling and Restaking have been repeatedly hyped, and institutions prefer to seek tenfold opportunities in "zero-narrative" small tokens.
ETH's "Prague Trap"
If the upgrade on May 7 can implement two key improvements:
EIP-7514 (Accelerated Staking Withdrawals): The staking unlock period will be compressed from 27 hours to 12 hours, which will stimulate the ETH staking rate to exceed 35% (currently 32%).
Proto-Danksharding shard testing: A phased achievement that increases TPS from 30 to over 1000, which may reignite institutional demand for ETH allocation.
Signal Observation Point: If Grayscale's ETH trust premium turns positive in the week before the upgrade, currently at -12%, it may indicate early positioning by institutions.
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