Below are the core contents of Trump's 2025 tax reform plan:
- Tariff adjustments: On April 2, 2025, local time, Trump announced a 10% 'baseline tariff' on all countries, with personalized higher 'reciprocal tariffs' imposed on the countries with the largest trade deficits with the U.S. For example, the cumulative tariff on China could reach 104%, 46% on Vietnam, and 49% on Cambodia, among others. At the same time, some products may be exempt, such as steel and aluminum products subject to specific tariff constraints, automobiles, as well as copper, pharmaceuticals, etc.
- Income tax adjustment proposal: The plan aims to reduce the tax burden on low- and middle-income families through tariff revenues, possibly significantly reducing or even eliminating federal income tax. However, no specific details on the income tax adjustment plan have been announced yet, such as how tax rates might change or whether tax brackets will be adjusted.
From an economic perspective, the Tax Foundation estimates that the tax reform will increase U.S. real GDP by over 9%, increase real wages by 8%, and create at least 2 million new permanent full-time jobs. However, a report from the Tax Policy Center (TPC) indicates that its long-term impact on U.S. economic growth is negligible and may even induce higher inflation. The U.S. Congressional Budget Office estimates that tax reform will reduce federal revenue by $2.4 to $2.5 trillion from 2017 to 2027 and by $3.4 trillion from 2027 to 2037. From an international perspective, U.S. tax reform may trigger a global race to cut taxes, impacting tax policies and economic development in other countries.