If Trump's tariff policy is fully implemented, it may exacerbate inflationary pressures by raising the prices of imported goods, while rising business costs and shrinking consumer demand will suppress economic growth, creating the risk of stagflation. In terms of the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin's recent correlation with the U.S. stock market has reached 0.74, and the panic caused by the trade war triggered by tariffs has led to a single-day drop of 3%, with a net outflow of $8.7 billion. Coupled with expectations that the U.S. may cancel federal income tax policies, short-term market risk aversion may push Bitcoin further down, but in the long term, attention should be paid to the impact of inflation on the actual purchasing power of digital assets. Based on the current information, the short-term bearish probability in the cryptocurrency market is relatively high.