Master discusses hot topics:
Let's first discuss this Wednesday: if the U.S. first-quarter GDP preliminary value comes in at the expected 0.4%, the market will probably be a bit anxious. This growth rate is quite disappointing, and it feels like the economy is hitting the brakes. If the U.S. economy cools down, Bitcoin will also be affected; after all, in a bad environment, investor sentiment tends to be weak.
Then there's the unemployment rate and non-farm data on Friday. If they show that the job market is really struggling, we will need to revisit Wednesday's GDP and PCE.
If these three voices sing the same tune of pessimism, the market may become more bearish. If the job market struggles, concerns about economic recession will grow, and Bitcoin may be dragged down in the short term, but looking long-term, risk aversion demand might push it up.
Additionally, early Tuesday morning, there will be a third reading of Arizona's Bitcoin state strategic reserve, which may need to be voted on. If it passes, it will go to the governor for signing, making Arizona the first state in the U.S. to establish a Bitcoin strategic reserve.
That said, this isn't a small matter; it's different from Chuanzi's approach. Chuanzi's method is not to sell the Bitcoin in the hands of Americans, but also not to spend too much taxpayer money to buy, for fear of a deficit messing things up. So if this vote passes, Bitcoin is likely to surge, giving bulls more confidence.
It is well known that the market previously dipped due to tariffs, but after Chuanzi softened his stance on tariffs, the market rebounded. Now it seems Bitcoin is about to stabilize, while beautiful stocks still need to put in more effort.
Tariffs aren’t a big problem in the short term; everyone's attention has shifted to the economy. However, after 90 days, tariffs might become an issue again, but that’s three months away, so let’s set it aside for now.
Currently, market sentiment has shifted from the chaos around tariffs to the economic level. How Bitcoin performs depends on whether everyone's thoughts are aligned.
When consensus is strong, such as during previous interest rate cuts, ETF approvals, and Chuanzi's election victory, everyone feels positive, and the trend surges upward. Now that these positive factors have played out, there isn't a particularly unified new expectation.
Regarding interest rate cuts, Old Powell and Chuanzi are still at odds, with significant differences. Without a unified market view, fluctuations are likely. Bitcoin has shown a slight upward trend from last week to the weekend, with both highs and lows moving up, changing from a rebound to a bounce, which is somewhat interesting.
However, the consistency isn't strong; those who hesitated to enter when the price surged may have missed out. Those who missed might be tempted to short, resulting in being trapped below 90k, and they will have to seek out bearish analyses to boost their spirits. In fact, considering this year’s news-driven market, the trends have been bizarre, so waiting for opportunities is better than blindly acting; being deeply trapped can be disastrous.
Master observes the trend:
Resistance level reference:
First resistance level: 95,500
Second resistance level: 94,200
Support level reference:
First support level: 92,500-92,900
Second support level: 91,900
Today's suggestions:
Yesterday, Bitcoin broke below the previous upward trend line and the 120-day moving average. We can set 92.5K~93K as the key support level. Since the previous drop was due to a large bearish candle, there needs to be a decent rebound to reduce the likelihood of continued decline.
On the 1-hour chart, there have already been 4 consecutive bearish candles, so be aware that a potential N-shaped decline may occur. Currently, we can draw a short-term upward trend line and wait to see if the lows can be raised before considering a very short position.
It has now broken through 93.6K, but don't rush to chase long positions. The 20, 60, and 120-day moving averages are too close, and there will be adjustments in the short term. The first support level at 92.5K~92.9K is crucial; if the low during the adjustment can be raised, consider entering a very short position.
4.28 Master’s segment pre-setup:
Long entry reference: light long positions in the 91,900-92,500 range; target: 94,200-95,500
Short entry reference: not to be considered for now
