On Monday (April 28), Bitcoin fell back to 93,000 dollars, facing the risk of bears attempting to seize power. Over the weekend, Trump 'released poison', emphasizing that the likelihood of pausing taxes again is low, stating that this is a windfall for the US, claiming that federal income tax will be significantly reduced. Although tensions in the trade war have reignited, Wall Street's largest whale Strategy has once again sent a signal to increase holdings, possibly disclosing increased holdings data this week.
I reviewed the market dynamics of BTC over the past week and concluded that the rise from 85,000 to 95,000 has crossed the critical market sentiment dividing line of the 200-day moving average. This does not mean it is safe, nor does it mean that everything is calm. The cloud of falling below the 200-day moving average still hovers over the market. If we use bull and bear as dividing lines, do not fear declines in a bear market. Even if it collapses like the '312' crash in 2020, falling from 10,000 to below 4,000 in just a few weeks, with a withdrawal rate as high as 60%, it is still a good opportunity to add positions during the decline.
Bear market win rate is high, bull market win rate is low. Therefore, do not be fully invested in a bull market. From a short-term perspective, around 95,000 there has been a squeeze on trapped positions for more than two months, and the recent rise is mainly due to institutions hoarding and positioning, while retail investors have been selling and shorting. The Google search trend keyword BTC is still at a low level, so the risk is not great right now. It will only be at its peak when many retail investors start borrowing to buy BTC like they do with gold. Due to the large number of trapped positions around 95,000, it will take at least two weeks, or even longer, to break through this pressure level. From the 1H chart perspective, it is currently just finding a landing point, with potential support in the 91,600-92,000 range. We will wait for a period of 1H bullish candles to see where it specifically lands. ETH's price has decreased by -3.85% in the past 24 hours, with a clear potential support at around 1,685 (because it hasn't rebounded yet, so it is considered to have potential). Setting a price alert at this level is sufficient; if there is a rebound, trade it, if not, skip it. One HOUSE coin, is it really a villa?
HOUSE is an old coin launched in March, the narrative is 'Your house will become worthless, you should sell your house and buy HOUSE coin as a hedge', it can be considered an anti-real estate experiment RWA meme token. This project has maintained a market cap of over 10 million for a month, and the community base is quite solid. Yesterday, HOUSE's market cap soared to 75 million dollars, setting a new historical high. Now the market cap is close to 100 million dollars, hitting a new high again. Major whales like Ansem and Him are buying in, and this round of on-chain AI coins generally cannot outperform conspiracy group coins. Have you gotten on board?
Although there are many market leaders now and funds are dispersed, this wave of market movement has only lasted 3-5 days, and even the leaders have only increased a little over one time, while others are around 50%. Most coins, except for AI, MEME, and LGAMEFE, have not risen much. The operators are also not earning much from harvesting in the market.
Many people have not yet entered the market, or have only entered partially, so I believe this wave is just a short-term correction. To hope for better growth, I hope those holding AI can make profits, and those fully invested can reach the shore.
This week, several major data releases are scheduled:
Wednesday 20:15, US April ADP employment data.
Wednesday 20:30, US GDP data.
Wednesday 22:00, US PCE data; Friday 20:30, US non-farm payrolls and April unemployment rate.
