The coin experienced over a tenfold increase (from $0.029 to above $0.3) between April 25 and 27, 2025; the logic behind this surge and current operational recommendations can be analyzed from the following professional perspectives:
1. Core reasons for the surge.
1. Market maker control and funding rate harvesting.
- The top 10 addresses hold over 60% of the shares, and the market maker is harvesting shorts by raising spot prices in conjunction with high funding rates in the futures market (annualized at 16%). Futures positions surged from $7.5 million to $100 million, far exceeding the spot market cap ($26 million), forming a 'long-short game amplifier.' Shorts are forced to close positions due to continuous losses from funding rates, pushing prices up.
2. Speculative arbitrage logic under low market capitalization.
When the delisting news was announced, ALPACA's market cap was only $6-8 million, and its low market cap made it a 'high leverage speculative target.' The market maker took advantage of market panic to create an oversell (lowest at $0.029), then attracted FOMO funds with low-cost promotions, forming a positive cycle of 'panic - bottom fishing - short squeeze.'
3. Reverse operations based on delisting expectations
- Binance delisting is usually seen as bearish, but ALPACA, being the only delisted coin with major exchange contracts, allows the market maker to create a 'doomsday cycle.' The project team cooperated by releasing news like 'stop issuing tokens' and 'cross-chain expansion' to offset the negative impact of the delisting.
4. The transmission of ecological heat in the BNB chain.
- BNB price rose to $615 during the same period, with ecological funds flooding into the lending protocol sector. ALPACA, as a leading lending protocol on the BNB chain (peak TVL of $1 billion), benefited from the spillover of speculative sentiment in the ecosystem.
5. Technical breakout and on-chain signals.
- After breaking through the key resistance level of $0.2, a consensus trend forms; RSI (72) is in the overbought but not yet saturated range, and active addresses on-chain surged 30% in 24 hours, with 80% of the $120 million trading volume being short-term funds.
2. Current operational risk assessment
Possibility of going long.
- Short-term opportunity: If the price stabilizes at $0.28, the technical outlook points to a target range of $0.35-$0.5, the market maker may complete the last surge before delisting.
- Risk warning:
- The funding rate has reached 16% annualized, making the cost of long positions extremely high.
- After Binance delisting (May 2), liquidity will sharply decrease, and insufficient depth on other exchanges may trigger a flash crash.
Possibility of short selling.
- Theoretical space: If the market maker unloads, the price may retreat to the support zone of $0.15-$0.2.
- Operational risk:
- Futures positions still reach $100 million, while shorts face continuous funding rate loss.
- The project team has a history of 'war reserve capital issuance' black box operations, and sudden sell-offs are difficult to predict.
---
3. Strategic recommendations
1. Short-term traders:
- If the holding cost is below $0.25, one can take partial profits in the range of $0.3-$0.35.
- Non-holders should avoid chasing highs; if the price retraces to $0.22-$0.25 and the funding rate falls back, a small long position can be attempted.
2. Futures operators:
- Short selling requires two conditions: the price must drop below $0.2 + funding rate turns negative, otherwise the cost of holding the position will be too high.
- Prefer exchanges with a 2-hour settlement cycle to reduce fee rate risk.
3. Long-term investors:
- If the project team fails to fulfill the promise of cross-chain expansion after delisting, watch out for the risk of going to zero.
- Pay attention to liquidity data from second-tier exchanges like Gate and MEXC after May 2 for further decision-making.
Currently, ALPACA is in a 'high volatility tail-end market' phase, suggesting to keep positions within 5% of total funds and simultaneously monitor the emotional fluctuations caused by the countdown to Binance delisting.
