BTC's all-time high was recorded on January 20, 2025, at $109,356 USD, while the all-time low was $2 USD in 2011. The current market capitalization is approximately $1.87 trillion USD, with a daily trading volume of $35.17 billion USD. The circulating supply is 19.86 million BTC, approaching the maximum limit of 21 million.
Analysis of recent trends and possible rise or fall
Bullish factors (possible rise):
Market sentiment: On social media platforms like X, sentiment is predominantly bullish, with 50.82% of positive posts compared to 13.93% bearish. This reflects optimism among retail investors.
Long-term technical trend: Monthly and weekly charts show a sustained bullish trend since the lows of 2022 (~$15,500). The price has risen 450% since then, with patterns of higher highs and higher lows.
Key support: The zone of $80,000-$73,000 has acted as support in the past. If the price remains above these levels, it could consolidate for a new bullish push.
Macroeconomic factors: The pause in trade tariffs by Trump and optimism in U.S.-China relations have recently boosted the crypto market, with BTC reaching levels close to $94,000.
Scarcity and halving: The last halving in April 2024 reduced the block reward to 3.125 BTC, decreasing the supply of new bitcoins. Historically, halvings have correlated with price increases in the medium term.
Optimistic predictions: Analysts like Changelly and BitcoinWisdom project a price range for 2025 between $100,000 and $218,794, with an expected average of $113,112 for May.
Bearish factors (possible decline):
Technical correction: In the short term, BTC shows a bearish structure after forming lower highs and lower lows since its peak in January. Indicators like the MACD and Bollinger Bands suggest a possible drop towards $77,000-$81,000 if the current support is not maintained.
Macroeconomic volatility: Tariffs imposed by the U.S. (such as 104% on China) have resulted in outflows of $3.4 billion in Bitcoin ETFs in February, indicating caution among institutional investors.
Key resistances: The level of $88,500 (4-hour chart) is a critical resistance. If BTC fails to break above it, it could fall towards the support of $73,000, implying a correction of 15%.
Futures divergences: Futures volumes have increased, but open interest has fallen, which could indicate cautious accumulation or a reduction in bullish positions.
Risk of deep correction: Some analysts warn that BTC could face the most significant correction of this cycle, especially if it fails to break key resistances like the 50-period exponential moving average (EMA).
Likely scenario:
Short term (1-4 weeks): Volatility persists, with a price range between $77,000 and $94,000. A breakout above $88,500 could push the price towards $100,000, while a drop below $81,000 could lead it to test the support of $73,000.
Medium term (2025): The underlying bullish trend, supported by the halving and increasing adoption, suggests a target of $100,000-$127,000 by the end of 2025, with potential peaks in April or August.
Long term (2026-2028): Models like PlanB's "stock-to-flow" and Changelly's projections point to prices between $195,869 and $500,000, driven by scarcity and increased institutional adoption.
Conclusion
Bitcoin is in a consolidation phase after a strong rise in 2024, with a long-term bullish bias due to fundamentals like the halving, adoption, and positive market sentiment. However, in the short term, it faces correction risks due to technical resistances and macroeconomic factors like tariffs. Investors should monitor key levels of $88,500 (resistance) and $80,000-$73,000 (supports) to make informed decisions. As always, it is crucial to conduct your own analysis and manage risk, as the volatility of the crypto market remains high.
