The May Day holiday is approaching, but the global financial markets will not be calm. Next week, although the Federal Reserve enters a 'quiet period', a series of major economic data will be released intensively, and the attention of global investors will be firmly captured. This data will not only reveal the latest dynamics of the global economy but may also have far-reaching impacts on the US dollar, US stocks, and even the global market. Below are the most noteworthy economic data and events for the market next week.
Monday (April 28): US economic data takes the lead.
22:30, the US April Dallas Fed Business Activity Index will be released first. This index is one of the important indicators for measuring US business activity, and its performance will provide the market with preliminary clues about the vitality of the US economy. Investors will closely watch whether this index shows signs of accelerating or decelerating economic activity.
Tuesday (April 29): Key data on the labor market and consumer confidence.
22:00, the US March JOLTS job openings and April Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index will be released simultaneously. The JOLTS job openings data reflects the supply and demand conditions in the US labor market, while the consumer confidence index is an important indicator of consumers' expectations for the economic outlook. These two data points will provide the market with a dual perspective on the labor and consumer markets.
Wednesday (April 30): A surge of global data releases, the market reaches a climax.
• 09:30, China's April official Manufacturing PMI will be announced. As the world's second-largest economy, China's manufacturing PMI data has always been a focal point for global investors. This data will reveal the activity level of Chinese manufacturing and the trend of economic recovery.
• 09:45, China's April Caixin Manufacturing PMI will also be released. The Caixin PMI data focuses on small and medium-sized enterprises, complementing the official PMI and providing investors with a more comprehensive picture of the Chinese economy.
• 17:00, the Eurozone's first quarter GDP year-on-year preliminary value will be announced. As the 'barometer' of the European economy, Eurozone GDP data will provide the market with the latest progress of economic recovery in Europe.
• 20:15, the US April ADP employment figures will be released. The ADP employment report is known as 'little non-farm' and is an important leading indicator for the non-farm payroll report on Friday. The market will closely monitor whether this data shows signs of a slowdown in the US labor market.
• 20:30, the US will release a series of key data: the first quarter labor cost index quarter-on-quarter change, the first quarter real GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter change preliminary value, the first quarter real personal consumption expenditures quarter-on-quarter change preliminary value, and the first quarter core PCE price index annualized quarter-on-quarter change preliminary value. This data will provide the market with the latest information on the overall health of the US economy and inflationary pressures.
• 22:00, the US March PCE price data, March personal spending month-on-month change, and March existing home sales index month-on-month change will be announced. The PCE price index is one of the core inflation indicators that the Federal Reserve pays attention to, and its performance will directly affect the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.
Thursday (May 1): Further insights into the labor market and manufacturing.
• 19:30, the US April Challenger job cuts data will be announced. This data reflects the trend of corporate layoffs and is one of the important indicators of the health of the labor market.
• 21:45, the final value of the US April S&P Global Manufacturing PMI will be released. The manufacturing PMI data will provide the market with the latest dynamics of the US manufacturing sector, especially against the backdrop of changes in the global supply chain and trade environment.
Friday (May 2): The non-farm payroll report is coming, and the market faces the ultimate test.
20:30, the US April seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls and April unemployment rate will be announced. As one of the most closely watched data points in the global financial markets, the non-farm payroll report will provide the market with the final 'report card' for the US labor market. Currently, the market expects April non-farm employment growth to slow from 228,000 in March to 130,000, with the unemployment rate expected to remain unchanged at 4.2%. Additionally, average wages for April are expected to increase by 0.3% month-on-month.
Market Outlook: Key impacts behind the data.
This week, data releases are intensive and important, and market volatility is inevitable. For the US dollar, a series of concerning data may weaken the dollar, especially against the backdrop of rising expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. However, for US stocks, if the expectations for rate cuts are further strengthened and market sentiment is not overshadowed by recession fears, US stocks may gain upward momentum.
Global investors are holding their breath as the data this week will provide key guidance for the global economy and market direction. Whether for investors focused on the US economy or market participants interested in global economic recovery, this week will be a crucial moment filled with challenges and opportunities.
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