Key details of the launch
1. SEC approval and launch date
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has officially approved the futures XRP ETF from ProShares Trust with a planned public launch date of April 30, 2025. This is the first XRP ETF that provides investors access to the cryptocurrency through futures and swaps using 2x leverage, but without direct investments in the token itself. The SEC's decision did not require a formal vote, as the regulator did not raise objections during the established period.
2. Market reaction
- The price of XRP rose by 12.7% in 24 hours after the announcement — from $0.52 to $0.59 (data as of April 27).
- Trading volume increased by 34.8%, reaching $2.1 billion on major exchanges (Binance, Coinbase).
- XRP's market capitalization surged by $3.2 billion to $33.5 billion in one day.
3. Technical indicators
- XRP has surpassed the 50-day moving average ($0.54), and the RSI index (68) indicates potential for further growth.
- XRP Ledger network activity has increased: 15,000 new wallets were created in 48 hours, and the number of transactions reached 1.8 million per day.
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Context and prospects
- Race for spot ETFs
Despite the launch of the futures ETF, the market is waiting for the approval of spot XRP ETFs. Companies like Grayscale, Bitwise, 21Shares, and others have already filed applications, and analysts predict their approval 'sooner rather than later.' For example, the Brazilian exchange B3 has already launched the world's first spot XRP ETF (XRPH11), reinforcing the global trend.
- Success factors for XRP
- Liquidity: XRP demonstrates the highest market depth among altcoins (twice that of Cardano).
- Regulatory changes: SEC has halted appeals against Ripple, and the new head of the commission, Paul Atkins, supports the crypto industry.
- Institutional interest: A whale transferred 57 million XRP ($126 million) from Bitstamp to a private wallet, signaling long-term accumulation.
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Forecasts and risks
- Price targets
Analysts note that the launch of the ETF could push XRP to $3.84 (historical maximum), and in the long term — to $5–$7 by the end of 2025 and $17–$21 by 2030. Elliott wave model indicates a possible rise to $30 if the current momentum is maintained.
- Risks
- Correction: Technical analysis warns of a possible decline to $1.92 due to overbought conditions.
- Macro factors: U.S. trade policy and a decrease in open interest in derivatives (-6.45%) may temporarily pressure the price.
--- Conclusion
The launch of the XRP ETF on April 30 is a historic step for the crypto market, opening access to Ripple for institutional investors through regulated instruments. However, the key growth driver will be spot ETFs, approval of which is expected in the coming months. Traders should keep an eye on the date May 22, 2025 — the deadline for the SEC's response to Grayscale's application.