How can India shake the global economy?
The likely escalation of the conflict between India and Pakistan is not just a geopolitical crisis. It is a threat to global markets that could affect everyone — from a T-shirt buyer to a pharmaceutical company in Europe.
What is at risk:
1. Pharmaceuticals
India is a leader in drug exports (20% of the global market).
Risk: shortage of antibiotics, generics, vaccines in the USA, EU, Africa.
2. Food Products.
• Rice: India is #1 in the world. Price increase by 10–30%.
• Tea, spices, sugar: shortage and price surge in Europe, Japan, the Middle East.
3. Clothing and Textiles.
India is the main supplier of cotton and basic clothing.
Risk: increased prices for products at H&M, Zara, Uniqlo.
4. IT Outsourcing.
Programming, analytics — all this is India.
Consequences: project delays, rising prices for IT services in the USA and EU.
5. Logistics.
India's ports are a critical link for Asia and the Middle East.
Risk: supply disruptions, rising freight and insurance costs.
6. Metals and Building Materials.
Aluminum, copper, cement — India supplies a lot.
Consequences: construction disruptions, price increases.
7. Oil and Gas.
Escalation in South Asia — a trigger for speculative price increases in oil.