Analysis of Bitcoin's sideways movement around $95,000 while waiting for technical indicators to strengthen and continue rising:
Market Status
After a strong rebound of 6,000 points on April 24, Bitcoin has been consolidating above $93,000, attempting to challenge the key level of $95,000 but facing obvious selling pressure. The price fluctuates between $94,000 and $95,000, forming a relatively stable sideways consolidation pattern.
Reasons for sideways movement instead of a decline
• Upper trapped selling pressure: There are many trapped positions above $95,000, and these investors may choose to sell when the price approaches $95,000, increasing market selling pressure, making it difficult for Bitcoin to quickly break this resistance level and continue rising.
• Uncertainty in Fed rate cut expectations: Although there are expectations for a rate cut, it has not been confirmed. Investors are waiting for clearer signals, leading the market to be cautious at high levels and lacking sufficient momentum to break through Bitcoin's price.
• Technical indicators at high levels need correction: From both the daily and 4-hour candlestick charts, some technical indicators show divergence or contraction at high levels, such as the top divergence trend of the MACD indicator in the 4-hour chart. DIF and DEA are contracting at high levels, needing sideways consolidation to correct technical indicators and accumulate momentum in preparation for subsequent rises.
Technical Indicator Analysis
• EMA Indicator: In the daily candlestick chart, the EMA indicator has shifted from a bearish trend to a bullish trend, with EMA15 breaking above $88,000, and is expected to provide strong support around $90,000. In the 4-hour candlestick chart, the EMA trend indicator continues to expand upwards, indicating that the bullish trend remains unchanged, but the price has formed a double top structure above $95,000, requiring attention to its subsequent breakout direction.
• MACD Indicator: The MACD indicator in the daily candlestick chart shows continuous volume increase, and both DIF and DEA continue to rise after breaking the zero axis, indicating strong buying momentum. However, in the 4-hour candlestick chart, the MACD indicator shows a top divergence trend, with DIF and DEA contracting at high levels. If the price breaks above $96,000, a golden cross trend will form, further enhancing the upward signal.
• Bollinger Bands Indicator: In the daily candlestick chart, the Bollinger Bands are expanding upwards, with candlesticks alternating upward around the upper band at $95,400, showing that short-term bullish strength is significantly stronger than bearish. In the 4-hour candlestick chart, the Bollinger Bands are contracting at high levels, with candlesticks facing resistance at the upper band of $95,400. The market is in an extreme overbought state, and reversal risks should be monitored.
Market Outlook
• Possibility and target for upward breakthrough: If Bitcoin can effectively break above the resistance level of $95,000, it is expected to continue climbing, aiming for $100,000 or even higher prices. Some analysts believe that after breaking $95,000, Bitcoin may quickly surge to $100,000, and once it surpasses the $100,000 mark, it will approach the historical high of over $109,000 set on January 20.
• Possibility and reasons for continuing sideways consolidation: If Bitcoin cannot effectively break above $95,000 in the short term, it may continue to consolidate sideways within the current range. On the one hand, the market needs time to digest the trapped selling pressure above; on the other hand, it is waiting for further clarification and implementation of macro favorable factors such as Fed rate cuts, as well as further correction and strengthening of technical indicators to accumulate strength for subsequent rises.
• Downward risks and support levels: If unexpected negative factors occur in the market, such as a sudden tightening of regulatory policies or significant deterioration in the macroeconomic situation, Bitcoin's price may undergo downward adjustment. Key support levels to watch below are $92,000, the $89,000-$90,000 range, and the 50-day simple moving average.
