Currently, the price increase of Bitcoin is mainly influenced by sentiment, and the sentiment of BTC further affects the prices of altcoins. It is recommended to analyze the chip distribution chart data of BTC and changes in sentiment to determine Bitcoin's pressure points.
From a macro perspective, the current economic environment is drastically different from that of 2021. At that time, interest rates were low (0-0.25%) and quantitative easing was in effect, while now we have high interest rates (4.5%) and a reduction in the balance sheet. In this context, market liquidity is tight, and signals of reversal are hard to come by. Currently, only institutions like ETFs are propping up the market, and there is a lack of hot events to stimulate market liquidity, including buying power from both large and small whales.
Interest rate cuts in April and May are basically out of the question, and market sentiment has become the key factor driving prices. When sentiment is good, prices rise; when sentiment is poor, prices fall. This is the market situation we are currently facing. Factors that can influence sentiment include tariffs, macro data, economic data, and speeches by Trump and Powell. Therefore, the most important thing right now is to closely monitor changes in sentiment.
