Let's talk about the viewpoint that spot trading in the crypto world cannot be held without selling and that most altcoins will only see a 2-3x increase in this bull market. Recently, I mentioned that spot trading in the crypto world cannot be held without selling, and a bunch of people criticized me. I said that altcoins might only see a 2-3x increase in this bull market, and again, I was criticized, with people saying that a few times isn't a real bull market. I originally wanted to discuss the theory, but then I thought better of it; it's hard to persuade the stubborn. So I ask you, in this bull market, do those who hold onto altcoins make more money or those who go on a roller coaster ride? If you rely on past experiences from the previous two rounds, you won't go bankrupt.

In an industry, when there is a period of profits, there will inevitably be a saturation period.

Looking back at each bull and bear cycle of BTC, we can see this clearly. In the 2017 bull market, BTC peaked at 19k, dropped to 3k in the bear market, and then the bull market started in 2020, reaching a peak of 69k in 2021. From the bear market low of 3k, it increased over 20 times, and from the previous high of 19k, it increased about 3.6 times. Now looking at this round, if 15k is considered the bear market low, the bull market peak is generally viewed at 130k-150k. From the bear market bottom, it has increased over 10 times, and from the previous high of 69k, it has increased more than 2 times. So what about the next round? The specific price increase is unknown, but it is highly likely that the increase will be lower than this round. The same logic applies to altcoins; in the 2017 bull market, hundreds of times returns were everywhere, and tens of times returns were plentiful. In the 2021 bull market, hundreds of times returns were relatively rare, while tens of times returns were more common. Therefore, in this round of the bull market, it is quite reasonable for quality altcoins to increase tenfold and for poor-quality altcoins to increase 2-3 times. Most retail investors are likely to buy poor-quality altcoins, so is it problematic for me to say that altcoins can increase 2-3 times in the next bull market?

Entering the crypto world, one must first give up the idea of becoming rich overnight and accept their own mediocrity. This may make you feel embarrassed, as most newcomers to the crypto world tend to believe they are trading geniuses among thousands. After suffering many losses and losing a lot of money, one will understand: before entering the crypto world, everyone says making money is as easy as drinking water, but unexpectedly, losing money is as easy as breathing.

Comparing the various 'exciting events' in the bull market, I believe the most damaging for retail investors is: not knowing how to sell or when Bitcoin surges to 100k, 120k, a group of people jumps out to look at 200k, 300k, and the whole network fomo, bringing back the rhetoric of the 'eternal bull market.'

After the noise, dust returns to dust, and earth returns to earth.

Remember my two points: spot trading in the crypto world cannot be held without selling, and do not expect altcoins to increase by 5 or 10 times; 2-3 times is already a good profit target.

If you like contracts, enjoy studying charts and technical analysis, click on my avatar. I have years of experience and skills in the crypto world, and I share them generously. I am waiting for you in the community, always online. Welcome to discuss and improve together.