BTC Market Analysis: Opportunities and Risks Coexist, Operate with Caution!
Previously, BTC formed a bottom near 74508 and then re-tested before rising against the trend. Why did it rise?
This is somewhat related to Trump; his recent attitude towards tariffs seems to have softened, and he has promised to lower tax rates as much as possible. It is rumored that some analysts pointed out that his previous tax calculations were incorrect and need to correct the symmetric tax calculation method. This reasoning aligns quite well with the current protests in the U.S., and I have to say, this year's drama in the U.S. feels a bit "magical," as if there is a mysterious force manipulating things behind the scenes. However, let's not focus on these external factors and concentrate on the market.
First, let's talk about the moving averages; MA99 is about to cross below MA200. In my personal prediction, even if BTC continues to rise in the future, it will likely clear the 9x price range, with 93000 being a crucial level. We may have to wait until next week or later to see the outcome.
Next, let's look at the daily indicators; RSI has already shown overbought conditions. StochRSI has exceeded 100, and RSI is also above 87. What does this indicate? It suggests that BTC's short-term rise has been too aggressive and is a bit overextended, so a pullback could happen at any time.
However, from the 3D view, the signal line is crossing upward, and MACD is also positive, having broken through the important threshold of 85500, confirming the upward trend. Looking at the 5D view, the signal line is about to cross above MACD, which technically supports a continued rise. The problem is that the market is thin over the weekend, and the upward momentum is clearly insufficient, giving a feeling of "loud thunder but little rain."
If this week's closing level can stabilize above 95500, and the signal line successfully crosses upward, along with a significant increase in trading volume on the 5D view, then the upward trend will basically be assured, with the next target being the 99000 - 100000 range.
But being realistic, the current 1D framework is already overbought, which poses a considerable risk. Personally, I recommend that for safety, it is best to observe in the 89000 - 90000 range first, waiting for 1 - 2 corrections, with StochRSI returning to the neutral zone and RSI falling back to the reasonable range of 69 - 70, then look for opportunities to enter the market in the 1D framework.
As the market continues to change, we need to closely monitor market signals and seize new entry opportunities. Like + comment, let's navigate this bull market together and seize this major opportunity!
