I just saw a statistical report from the United States, from the Bank of America (BofA) Credit Investor Survey. By April 2025, the most concerning rankings for investors are:

1. Trade war

2. Recession

3. Inflation

4. US fiscal policy

5. Stagflation

6. Geopolitical risk

7. China

8. Debt sustainability

9. Rising interest rates

10. Oil prices

11. Commercial real estate (CRE)

12. Releveraging event risk

13. Europe

This data clearly shows that credit investors are most concerned about the trade war and recession (nearly 80% and 70% respectively), which is a significant increase compared to January, indicating that after a quarter, investors are more cautious about the impact of the trade war on the risk market (due to tariffs). Besides the trade war, there is also concern about a potential economic recession.

Ranked third is inflation, which has actually decreased somewhat, indicating that the pressure of inflation can be alleviated, but this alleviation is likely due to concerns about recession.

Therefore, the panic over the trade war (tariffs) may not have been fully released, while the worries about recession may increase as the Federal Reserve's monetary policy remains unchanged.

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