On April 9, 2025, President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on most U.S. tariffs, excluding those on China, where rates were raised to 125%. This unexpected policy shift sent shockwaves through global markets, sparking a significant rally in both traditional equities and cryptocurrencies.
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š Market Reaction: A Record-Breaking Surge
The announcement led to one of the most substantial single-day gains in U.S. stock market history. The Dow Jones Industrial Average soared by nearly 3,000 points (7.9%), the S&P 500 jumped approximately 10%, and the Nasdaq 100 surged over 12% . Global markets mirrored this optimism, with European and Asian indices also experiencing significant gains.
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š° Bitcoinās Resurgence: Aiming for $100K
In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin (BTC) rebounded sharply, climbing from below $77,000 to approximately $83,000 . Analysts suggest that if BTC breaks the $83,000 resistance level, it could target the $100,000 mark by June, potentially validating a bullish pattern known as a āfalling wedgeā .
The rally was further fueled by increased activity among Bitcoin whales, with the number of wallets holding 10 or more BTC rising significantly, indicating renewed confidence among large investors .
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ā ļø Caution Ahead: Is This a Sustainable Recovery?
Despite the immediate market gains, experts caution that the tariff pause may be a temporary measure. The U.S. average tariff rate remains elevated at 24%, up from 2% the previous year . Additionally, the 125% tariff on Chinese imports could exacerbate trade tensions and inflationary pressures.
Analysts at Citi and Bloomberg maintain that the risk of a U.S. recession remains at 50/50, even if the 90-day reprieve extends . Moreover, the pause does not address underlying issues such as currency manipulation and non-monetary trade barriers.
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š® Outlook: Relief Rally or Beginning of a Real Recovery?
The recent market surge appears to be a relief rally rather than the onset of a sustained recovery. While the tariff pause has alleviated immediate concerns, the underlying economic challenges persist. Investors should remain vigilant and consider the potential for increased volatility as the 90-day period progresses and trade negotiations unfold.
In summary, while the tariff pause has provided a temporary boost to markets, the path to a genuine economic recovery remains uncertain. Continued monitoring of trade developments and economic indicators will be crucial in assessing the sustainability of the current market trends.