#特朗普暂停新关税

Trump's adjustment of tariff policy is essentially a 'strategic stop-loss' rather than a fundamental shift, with the core contradiction lying in the irreconcilability between containing China and maintaining the hegemony of the dollar. Short-term market sentiment may be boosted by progress in negotiations, but in the long term, two major risks must be heeded:

Credit crisis of U.S. debt: If yields remain high, it could trigger a global capital withdrawal from dollar assets;

Fragmentation of supply chains: Regionalized supply chains increase global trade costs, and inflationary pressures may become prolonged.