Those who do trend trading should be in a good mood in the past two weeks. The overall market sentiment has obviously warmed up, and panic news has temporarily subsided. But the more "peaceful the years" are, the more we should be vigilant.
You know, this situation is mostly the result of careful planning by the dealer.
For those friends who haven’t cashed in their profits yet, remember to set up moving take-profit and stop-loss, so as not to lose the profits again!
In the short term, market volatility may intensify, but the overall rebound trend is expected to last for about a week. Note that it is a rebound, not a reversal!
Today is the weekend (next week is the May Day holiday), and the US stock market performed well on the last trading day of the week. The earnings of technology stocks were better than expected, which boosted the sentiment. In the short term, the market optimism is expected to continue for two days. However, next week will release important GDP data, and the market volatility may intensify.
Regarding supply and demand, the current selling pressure in the market mainly comes from short covering and the liquidation of some short-term funds, and medium- and long-term funds have not fled on a large scale. A large number of Bitcoins have moved from the range of $81,000 to $91,000 to around $93,000, indicating that the market is still in a solid bottoming process.
Regarding altcoins, recent trends have shown obvious differentiation:
Highly strong coins: such as SUI, TAO, BCH, BNB, PENDLE, MKR, IP, have recovered more than half of their losses.
Moderately strong coins: such as ADA, JTO, AAVE, LINK, RSR, TWT, ENS, the prices have returned to the mid-March level.
Extremely weak coins: such as AEVO, ACT, STRK, SATS, BOME, and MASK, have weak rebound strength.
The most important strategy: only do strong, not weak! Only by focusing your funds and energy on the strong and strong currencies can you take advantage of market opportunities more efficiently.
A fact that cannot be ignored is that the opportunities to make money in the cryptocurrency world are decreasing, and the advantages of new entrants are gradually overshadowing those of old entrants.
Why do I say that? Because Binance now lists almost all new projects, and old projects are basically marginalized.
In the past, projects usually had to accumulate a certain degree of popularity on other exchanges before they had the opportunity to be listed on Binance. Retail investors had time to evaluate the projects. But now, Binance directly lists new projects in one step, resulting in new projects being listed at high prices, and the profit space left for retail investors has been greatly compressed.
New investors have no old baggage and can pursue new trends more flexibly, while many old investors are still carrying old projects from the previous round and are reluctant to sell their shares, thus easily missing out on new opportunities.
The two most popular sectors on CEX: AI and Meme
The coins that have skyrocketed in the past two weeks are basically concentrated in the AI and Meme tracks. At the same time, the operating logic of the altcoin market is also quietly changing:
VC model transformation：
In the past, VCs relied on primary market financing and reap profits in the secondary market; now they focus on the “VC+Meme” model, combining hot narratives to attract buyers.SOL Ecosystem Changes：
On the Solana chain, fewer and fewer people are talking about technology, and more are talking about market control and hype. Meme coins are flying all over the place, but their long-term value is scarce.AI concept boom：
The so-called "VC+AI" project may seem high-tech, but in fact it is no different from a meme. Although it is extremely popular in the short term, the long-term risks cannot be ignored.
Some AI concept coins on the chain, such as WLD, OL, AIXBT, etc., have experienced the first wave of pull-ups, but most of them have only a shallow correction, and may still be brewing a second wave of market conditions. Retail investors need to remain vigilant when entering the market and should not blindly chase high prices.
A special case: Alpaca
The current market value of this project, which is about to be delisted, is only 27 million US dollars, but the contract position is as high as 110 million US dollars, which is extremely exaggerated. Moreover, the largest position is concentrated in Bitget, while the trading volume is in Binance, which clearly shows the traces of the dealer's layout.
It is very likely that the market makers have already placed a large number of long orders at the bottom, and retail investors frantically opened short orders after seeing the news of the project being delisted, and the funding rate was eaten up.
Currently, the funding rate is charged once every hour, and the market makers can easily eat up the transaction fees of retail investors during the process of manipulating the market.
