Let me talk about my logic in judging the market.
Emotions influence the price of $BTC, and the price of $BTC influences the prices of altcoins.
BTC's URPD data is used to combine sentiment to judge the price position. As shown in the image.
Because the essence now is macro tightening, with balance sheet reduction still ongoing and high interest rates at 4.5%. This is completely different from 2021 (0-0.25 low interest rates, QE). In this context, a reversal is unrealistic because there isn't much money.
Surely, some friends will ask, wasn't there also high interest rates in November-December last year? Yes, that's correct. But at that time, there was the election rally from Trump's victory and the first defensive rate cut in September, which naturally brought in capital.
And now, the inauguration of the election is long gone, and interest rate cuts are currently paused. What drives the market are emotions. What influences emotions? It's tariffs, macro data, economic data, and speeches from Trump or old Powell.
If there are no macro events, then the higher levels are influenced by Trump's statements; if Trump's statements decrease in level, then the influencing factors are macro data.
Therefore, grasping the transition of emotions is very important. The previous easing of tariffs and the decision not to fire old Powell, among other positive sentiments, led to an increase in BTC prices, and the same goes for altcoins, which follow the BTC market.
Currently, this emotional influence is diminishing, and $BTC has surged above 95 but has also retraced. As we approach the weekend, with lower liquidity, it shouldn't lead to any significant surprises this time, as the sentiment in the U.S. stock market on Friday was quite good, and there might be a possibility of oscillating upward.
Next, we will see if there are any sentiment-influencing events over the weekend; both positive and negative news will affect the BTC price. Just like how Trump used to announce things over the weekend.
#BTC's rebound is temporarily blocked at $95,000, consistent with the resistance levels of $95,000 and $100,000 given in previous analyses. However, looking at the extent of the drop after the rebound from $95,000, the selling pressure is not very strong. If the weekly close can stabilize at $95,000, then there is a high probability that it will test around $100,000 next week.
Bullish support levels: $92,000, $90,000; resistance levels: $95,000, $100,000.
Now, let's talk about ETH. Many people are worried it will drop directly, but I think the probability is low. There are too many retail investors on the ETH train now, and the capital is too heavy; it won't move easily, but that doesn't mean it won't rise.
ETH may still consolidate for a while before making another move. Once ETH moves up, altcoins will also take off. By then, the whole market will be making money, and it will be hard not to jump in. Once many people start to FOMO in, the correction will begin.
The fluctuations of altcoins show a clear differentiation:
Highly strong cryptocurrencies: Those that have recovered half of their decline, such as SUI, TAO, BCH, BNB, PENDLE, MKR, IP.
Moderately strong cryptocurrencies: Those that have recovered their decline to prices before mid-March, such as ADA, JTO, AAVE, LINK, RSR, TWT, ENS.
Extremely weak cryptocurrencies: Those that haven't bounced back at all, such as AEVO, ACT, STRK, SATS, BOME, MASK.
Based on this simple judgment logic, pick the strong cryptocurrencies you like.
Remember, focus on the strong, not the weak. The strong will stay strong; concentrate your valuable funds, energy, and time on strong cryptocurrencies.
DOGE, SHIB, and PEPE - these MEME coins can be considered some of the deepest community consensus.
Recently, I've seen many people saying that PEPE is about to take off. I also did some searching, and honestly, many foreign analysts have an incredible ability to make big promises, often claiming it can multiply tenfold or more.
But let's do our own research; after all, relying on others is unreliable. I took a look at PEPE's K-line, and it has been consolidating for four months. With the BTC market warming up, PEPE may also have some performance space.
However, there are two significant resistance levels above: 0.0000149 and 0.0000218. Only by breaking through these two points can we have a chance to reach the 0.0000394 level.
The AI concept is still super hot, with a wave of AI-related conferences in May and June. When laying out on-chain, don't rush to enter; you should first conduct thorough research on the projects. You can pay attention to some secondary market AI concept coins.
Coins like wld, ol, and aixbt, after a surge, most have retraced very little, which is likely brewing a second wave. Moreover, the market makers can't bring in much capital, and there isn't much FOMO sentiment in the market. Without a few big bullish candles, it's quite difficult for the market makers to unload their positions.
