Let's talk about the logic of market judgment that has always existed:
Emotions affect Bitcoin prices, and Bitcoin prices in turn affect altcoin prices. I will use Bitcoin's URPD data, combined with market sentiment, to assess price positions.
Now is different from 2021, when we had low interest rates and money printing; the current macro environment is tightening, with interest rates at 4.5% and balance sheet reduction ongoing, making it difficult for a major reversal to occur due to a lack of liquidity in the market.
Some may ask, why did prices rise in November-December last year despite high interest rates? Because there were expectations of a Trump victory in the elections, along with a defensive interest rate cut signal released in September, which brought in capital inflows. But now the election momentum has passed, and the interest rate cut expectations are on hold, leaving the market driven entirely by sentiment. Factors affecting sentiment include tariffs, macroeconomic data, speeches by Trump and Powell, etc. Without significant macro events, Trump's statements become crucial; if the heat of his news diminishes, macro data will dominate sentiment.
