#TariffsPause It seems like you're referring to the recent developments regarding tariffs and trade policies, particularly in the context of Donald Trump and the US Federal Reserve. Here's what's been happening ¹ ²:

- *Trump's Criticism of the Federal Reserve*: Trump has been vocal about his dissatisfaction with the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, urging Jerome Powell to implement "pre-emptive" rate cuts. He believes lower interest rates will stimulate economic activity and boost the stock market.

- *Potential Removal of Jerome Powell*: Trump has even floated the idea of removing Powell as the Federal Reserve Chair, although the legal grounds for this are unclear. The Federal Reserve Act of 1913 suggests that members of the Fed's Board of Governors can only be removed "for cause," meaning serious misconduct.

- *Impact on the US Dollar*: The uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's independence and potential changes in monetary policy could significantly impact the value of the US dollar. If markets believe the Fed is bending to political pressure, it could weaken the dollar.

- *Tariffs and Trade Policies*: Trump's trade policies, including tariffs, have been a point of contention. The IMF has cut India's GDP growth forecast to 6.2% for 2025, citing the impact of these tariffs on the global economy.

Some potential scenarios and their implications for the US dollar include ¹:

- *Status Quo*: Powell remains as Fed Chair, and the Fed maintains its independence. This could lead to moderate volatility and a slightly negative impact on the US dollar.

- *Escalation*: Trump attempts to remove Powell, leading to a legal battle and significant uncertainty. This could result in extreme volatility and a highly negative impact on the US dollar.

- *De-escalation*: Trump reduces his attacks on Powell, and the removal threat recedes. This could lead to reduced volatility and a neutral to mildly positive impact on the US dollar.