I. Core Support Level: The pivotal role of 1782 in bullish and bearish dynamics.
1. Support Validity: The basis for maintaining an upward trend.
- Position Significance: 1782 is the bottom of the 4-hour level consolidation range and is also a key price level for short-term bullish defense.
- Technical Signal: If the 4-hour closing price stabilizes above 1782, it indicates that the consolidation is a continuation of the upward trend, after a minor pullback (such as 1790-1800), it may continue to test resistance levels upwards.
- Operational Logic: Aggressive traders can establish long positions on dips above 1782, targeting upward resistance levels; conservative traders should wait for a breakout above 1815 before following in.
2. Risk of Breakdown: Be cautious of the initiation of a pullback.
- Confirmation Conditions: If the 4-hour closes below 1782, accompanied by increased trading volume, it may trigger long position stop losses, turning into a pullback.
- Market Impact: Short-term funds may shift to bearish positions, need to pay attention to changes in market sentiment (such as increasing short positions), to prevent panic selling pressure.
II. Key Price Range and Strategy Suggestions
1. Upward Resistance Levels and Profit-Taking References
- First resistance level: 1815
- Upper boundary of the consolidation range, breaking this opens up short-term upward space, with a target looking towards 1837.
- Second resistance level: 1837
- Near previous high points, dense area of trapped positions; a breakout requires volume support, and if stabilized, the next target is 1866.
- Third resistance level: 1866
- Medium to long-term resistance level, if broken, may trigger a new round of bullish momentum for Bitcoin (BTC).
- Long Position Strategy:
- Holders of long positions can take partial profits at 1815 and 1837, leaving the remaining position to bet on the breakthrough of 1866, with a stop loss set below 1782.
2. Downward Support Level and Stop-Loss References
- First support level: 1755
- Below the integer level of the consolidation range, initial pullback target; if broken, it may accelerate the decline to 1721.
- Second Support Level: 1721
- Near previous lows, an important psychological support; if breached, it may test 1695.
- Third Support Level: 1695
- Medium to long-term ascending trend line support, suitable for medium to long-term positioning (needs to be combined with Bitcoin's trend and market sentiment).
- Short Position Strategy:
- After breaking 1782, one can enter short positions, targeting sequentially towards 1755 and 1721, with a stop loss set above 1790; if it breaks below 1695, watch out for a trend reversal.
III. Operational Precautions
1. Correlation Risk:
- Ethereum's movements usually follow Bitcoin, need to pay attention to whether Bitcoin's 94280 support level is broken, to avoid misjudging a single cryptocurrency.
2. Position Management:
- Control single transaction position at 5%-10%; after breaking key positions, you can increase the position (such as breaking 1815 or falling below 1782), but strict stop losses must be set.
3. Time Nodes:
- Key attention to the closing situation between 8-10 PM tonight; capital flow may intensify volatility.
4. News Catalysts:
- Pay attention to Ethereum ecosystem news (such as the Cancun upgrade progress), SEC regulatory dynamics, etc., positive/negative news may amplify technical signals.
Summary: Use 1782 as an anchor, flexibly switch between bullish and bearish strategies.
- Bullish Conditions: Close above 1782 on the 4-hour chart, targets 1815-1866, requires volume support;
- Bearish Conditions: If the 4-hour closes below 1782, targets are 1755-1695, with caution for panic selling.
In operations, it is recommended to use closing prices as confirmation signals to avoid being disturbed by intraday fluctuations, while also hedging risks and prioritizing the protection of principal. $ETH #以太坊走势
