1. Current core observation point at the 4-hour level: 94280 as the dividing line for long and short positions.
1. Effective support: Maintaining the premise of an upward trend.
- Significance of the position: 94280 is the bottom support level of the recent 4-hour consolidation range and is also a psychological level for short-term long and short forces.
- Technical logic: If the price continues to hold this position within a 4-hour cycle (i.e., closing price does not fall below), it indicates that the bulls still dominate, and sideways consolidation may be a continuation pattern of the upward trend.
- Small-level operational opportunities: Even if there is a pullback at the 1-hour or 30-minute level (such as testing near 94500-94800), as long as it does not break below 94280, it can be seen as a low-buy opportunity, targeting the upward resistance levels.
2. Downside Risk: Be wary of the onset of a correction.
- Confirmation signal: If the 4-hour closing price falls below 94280, accompanied by increased trading volume, it may break the consolidation balance, triggering short-term long stop-losses and turning into a corrective trend.
- Market sentiment impact: After breaking, short-term speculative funds may turn to short positions, need to pay attention to whether market panic sentiment spreads (e.g., fund flows, contract holding changes).
2. Key price ranges and operational strategies
1. Upside targets: Distribution of resistance levels and profit-taking references.
- First resistance level: 95780
- Corresponding to the upper bound of the consolidation range, a breakout may open up short-term upward space, with targets looking towards the next resistance level.
- Second resistance level: 96980
- Near previous phase high points, dense area of trapped positions; a breakout requires increased volume.
- Third resistance level: 98495
- Key medium to long-term resistance level. If it holds here, it may open a new round of upward trend (must be judged in conjunction with weekly level trends).
- Strategy suggestions:
- Aggressive traders can hold long positions above 94280, reducing positions and taking profits near 95780 and 96980, with remaining positions aiming for a breakthrough at 98495.
- Conservatives should wait for a breakout above 95780 before chasing, with stop-loss set below 94280.
2. Downside risk: Support levels and stop-loss references.
- First support level: 93010
- The integer level below the lower bound of the consolidation zone is the initial correction target, and a break below may accelerate the decline.
- Second support level: 92880
- (Note: The original text '97880' appears to be a typo, corrected to 92880 based on the logic of the downward trend.) Near previous low, an important psychological support level; if lost, it may test lower positions.
- Third support level: 90875
- Medium to long-term uptrend support line. If the price falls back to this level, it can be seen as a medium to long-term positioning opportunity (must be combined with fundamental analysis).
- Strategy suggestions:
- After breaking below 94280, short positions can be entered, targeting 93010 and 92880 sequentially, with stop-loss set above 94500.
- If it quickly breaks below 90875, be alert for a trend reversal and exit to observe the situation.
3. Operational precautions
1. Cycle interconnectivity:
- The 4-hour level trend needs to be combined with the daily level trend (e.g., whether the current daily line is in an upward channel) to avoid misjudgment based on a single cycle.
2. Fund management:
- Regardless of long or short positions, do not exceed 5% of total funds for a single position. After breaking support or resistance, positions can be moderately increased (strict stop-loss required).
3. Impact of news:
- Pay attention to the opening of US stocks in the evening, Federal Reserve policy expectations, cryptocurrency regulatory dynamics, etc. News may amplify technical fluctuations.
Summary: Combining offense and defense, flexibly respond.
- Bullish logic: Maintain above 94280, bullish to 95780-98495, need to pay attention to volume coordination.
- Bearish logic: Break below 94280, bearish to 93010-90875, need to be wary of panic selling.
It is recommended to use the 4-hour closing price as a signal confirmation basis to avoid being misled by intraday noise, while also preparing for both long and short positions, with risk control as the top priority.$BTC #比特币走势 
