I. Key Technical Points
1. Support Levels
- Short-term Support: $150-148 range (lower bound of daily ascending channel)
- Strong Support: $145 (4-hour chart BOLL middle band support)
2. Resistance Levels
- First Resistance: $155-157 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level and 4-hour chart resistance)
- Second Resistance: $160-165 (if it breaks $155, it may trigger a short squeeze)
II. Price Prediction for Today
- Optimistic Scenario: If it stabilizes at $152 and breaks through $155 with volume, it may hit the $157-160 range.
- Neutral Scenario: Consolidation in the $150-155 range, need to observe on-chain capital and ecosystem heat changes.
- Risk Scenario: If it drops below $148, it may retest $145 or even lower support levels.
III. Influencing Factors
1. On-chain Data: Contract open interest plummeted by 82%, beware of the main force's inducement risk.
2. Ecosystem Dynamics: Solana's on-chain TVL surged by $860 million in one day, DEX trading volume increased by 15%, which may drive a short squeeze in the short term.
3. Market Sentiment: If Bitcoin and Ethereum stabilize at key resistance (e.g., BTC breaks $95,000), it may drive SOL to rise in tandem.
IV. Operational Suggestions
- Long Strategy: Build positions in batches in the $150-152 range, stop loss below $148, target $155-160.
- Short Strategy: If it drops below $148 and does not recover quickly, lightly short with a target of $145.
V. Risk Warning
- Short-term volatility may be affected by reduced market liquidity over the weekend, need to be cautious in chasing highs and lows.
- Long-term predictions (e.g., VanEck forecasts $520 by year-end) need to be validated with subsequent technical upgrades and ecosystem development.