1. First, let's look at three true stories

1. Lao Zhang's Sichuan restaurant (investment)

Lao Zhang opened a Sichuan restaurant in a village in Shenzhen:

- Spent three months eating at 50 competing restaurants, sending chefs to Chongqing for training

- Record customer traffic daily, adjust the menu based on takeaway data

- Even during the pandemic, survived the winter relying on old customers' recharge cards

- Started making profits in the third year, now preparing to open a branch

This is investing: like planting a fruit tree, it requires watering and fertilizing (putting in effort) and waiting for it to bear fruit (value growth). The key is to create cash flow.

2. Lao Wang's shoe trading business (speculation)

Lao Wang discovered a certain sneaker endorsed by celebrities:

- Immediately borrowed money to buy 200 pairs, never wears these shoes

- Listing orders on the Dewu app, prices rise 500 every day

- Suddenly exposed quality inspection issues two weeks later, ultimately sold at a loss

This is speculation: like passing the parcel, as long as someone takes the baton, you can earn. But when the music stops (liquidity dries up), the person holding the parcel (the last buyer) suffers the most.

3. Lao Li's lottery career (gambling)

Lao Li's daily routine:

- Studying "lottery secrets" every day, spending 30% of salary on lottery tickets

- Won 200 yuan a few times, telling everyone "I almost hit the jackpot"

- After ten years, a total investment of 180,000, with total winnings of less than 50,000

This is gambling: the dealer (lottery center) has already calculated the odds, and you will definitely lose in the long term. Just like casino machines, designed with a 5% payout rate.

Two, The Core Distinction Among the Three (Using Mahjong as a Metaphor)

Three, Answering Two Soul-Searching Questions

Q1: "Why am I still stuck holding value coins for so long?"

- You may have made the "seeking a sword in a boat" mistake

Just like holding onto a pager ten years ago, you won't see appreciation from long-term holding. True value investing requires two prerequisites:

1. The target is indeed creating value (like the value storage function of bitcoin)

2. The value has not been severely overestimated (buying in a bear market is ten times safer than in a bull market)

Q2: "Is watching the market and trading contracts every day considered investing?"

- This is equivalent to saying "Gambling every day is financial management"

The essence of contract trading:

- Exchanges are casinos (collecting fees is profit)

- Both sides are gambling (what you earn is what others lose)

- With leverage added, even time is not a friend (may lead to liquidation)

Four, Self-Assessment Three Questions (Easy to Understand Version for Grocery Aunts)

Next time before reaching for your wallet, ask yourself with a clear conscience:

1. "Can this thing generate money by itself?"

(Apple trees bearing fruit/rental income from shops/stock dividends?)

2. "Who is giving me the money I earn?"

(Market sentiment feeding you? The next bag holder? Or real value?)

3. "What is the worst that could happen?"

(Apple trees dying? Fruits rotting in hand? Or just burning through money?)

Five, Ultimate Summary (Remember these three sentences)

- Investing is "spring planting and autumn harvest" (requires time and patience)

- Speculation is "buy low and sell high" (requires vision and luck)

- Gambling is "willing to bet and accept losses" (only requires courage)

Next time you see someone calling cryptocurrency speculation "blockchain investment", just ask them:

"Is your bitcoin like an apple tree? Or a family heirloom? Or a lottery?"

BTC

The big coin is plundering liquidity above 95000 according to the script of the previous day's report, with upper high points located at 96500-96980! Here, pay attention to the distribution structure of the small level M15, which increases the risk of a pullback. Be cautious in chasing the rise; the first pullback to 92600-91660 can try short-term participation! If it breaks down, wait for buying opportunities in the two demand zones below 88300-87800, 84800-83900!

ETH

Be cautious about the liquidity plundering at 1845, upper high points 1877-1904! Short-term support at 1770-1738! Be cautious in chasing the rise! Still need to patiently wait at 1710-1680!

SOL

Short-term pressure at 153-156, upper high points 158-160, pay attention to the distribution opportunities at the small level M15! The first touch down below 148-145 can participate short-term! If it breaks down, patiently wait for 136-134!

The information and data involved are sourced from publicly available materials, striving for accuracy and reliability, but do not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the information. The content does not constitute any investment advice, and any investment based on this is at your own risk!