I. Overview
Binance officially launched spot trading for Initia (INIT) on April 24, 2025, at 11:00 (UTC), and simultaneously listed five trading pairs: INIT/USDT, INIT/USDC, INIT/BNB, INIT/FDUSD, and INIT/TRY. During the Launchpool phase, it distributed 3% (30,000,000 INIT) of reward tokens, with an initial circulation of about 148,750,000 INIT, accounting for 14.88% of the total supply. On the day of launch, Binance also launched the “Trade INIT to Win a Million INIT Prize Pool” event to encourage users to participate in first-day trading, with the event period from April 24, 2025, 11:30 to May 1, 2025, 11:30 (UTC).
II. First Day Market Performance
As of April 25, the price of INIT has risen from the launch point of about 0.30 USD to about 0.87 USD, with a 24-hour increase of 34%–48% (data varies slightly across platforms). The average daily trading volume has surpassed 840 million USD, showing extremely strong trading enthusiasm and liquidity attractiveness in the short term. Meanwhile, the attention on this new L1 ecosystem token in the market continues to rise, with multiple analysts believing that its “Seed Tag” endorsement and Launchpool farming mechanism are the main driving forces.
III. Token Economics and Unlocking Risks
1. Total Supply and Initial Circulation: The total amount of INIT is 1,000,000,000 pieces, with an initial circulation of 148.75 M (approximately 14.88%).
2. Launchpool Allocation: 30 M (3%) is used for Binance Launchpool; an additional 10 M and 20 M are allocated for marketing activities immediately after launch and 6 months later, respectively.
3. Subsequent Unlocking Nodes: According to CryptoRank data, approximately 2.51 M (0.25%) of INIT is expected to be unlocked on 2025-05-24, followed by a larger scale of team, investor, and community incentive tokens being unlocked, which may trigger selling pressure in the secondary market.
4. Holding Concentration: The proportion of early investors held by private placements and teams is about 15.25%. If a concentrated sell-off occurs in the short term, the price is prone to large fluctuations.
IV. Macroeconomic Market Environment
In mid to late April 2025, the global cryptocurrency market is generally on a warming trend: Bitcoin's valuation fluctuates in the range of 93,000–95,000 USD, and shows a weak upward trend recently, with abundant market liquidity and a bullish sentiment. Against this backdrop, newly launched high-traffic L1 projects tend to attract short-term capital influx more easily, and Initia, with its selling points like 'modular chain + Rollup combination', native IBC cross-chain, and Move VM smart contracts, has frequently become a hot topic in public opinion after the conference.
Short-term Market Forecast
1. Support Level:
•$0.55–0.60: The first wave accumulation level and the new investment cost range at launch;
•$0.70–0.75: The first day's trading concentration area, with strong support on the downside.
• Resistance Level:
•$0.95: Close to the peak on the first day of launch;
•$1.00: A key integer level; if broken, it may attract a new wave of FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) buying.
After a wide fluctuation, if it can stabilize above $0.95, there is a short-term expectation to challenge $1.10–$1.20; otherwise, if it falls below $0.70, we need to be cautious of further retracement to around $0.55.
Medium-Long Term Outlook
1. Ecosystem Implementation and Application: The long-term value of Initia still depends on the actual implementation of its mainnet applications and the Minitias (sub-chain ecosystem). If it can attract DApp, DeFi, and GameFi projects to settle in and fully demonstrate the advantages of 'cross-chain native interoperability', it is expected to steadily rise in the medium to long term.
2. Market Competition: The current competition among smart contract platforms is fierce, and INIT needs to compete directly with Ethereum, new L2s, and Cosmos ecosystem projects, thereby accelerating the pace of ecosystem development.
3. Community and Lock-up: The unlocking pace of team, investor, and community incentive tokens in the future, along with the holding sentiment in the secondary market, will be important variables affecting price fluctuations.
Finally, the price of INIT surged significantly on its first day of trading, indicating short-term investment opportunities, but also accompanied by high unlocking sell pressure risks. It is recommended to pay attention to key support and resistance levels, Bitcoin, and overall market sentiment in the short term; in the medium to long term, track ecosystem development and token unlocking rhythm, and dynamically adjust positions and risk management strategies.
