1. Fundamental understanding: Clarify 'risk-reward' positioning

The essence of the cryptocurrency market is a high-volatility zero-sum game, and three key questions must be answered first:

Capital attributes: Is it 'risk investment capital' that can withstand more than 50% drawdown?

Ability boundary: Do you have technical analysis, on-chain data interpretation, or industry research capabilities?

Time cost: Can you endure watching the market for over 12 hours a day or long-term investment of 3-5 years?

Data anchoring: The annualized volatility of Bitcoin from 2023 to 2025 reaches 87%, the average drawdown cycle of altcoins is 112 days, and entry should be based on 'affordable losses'.

2. Profit-making path: Three core track choices

Track applicable audience core strategy risk level Bitcoin ecosystem conservative/newbie bear market dollar-cost averaging (monthly 10%-15%), staggered profit-taking in bull markets

Altcoin rotation aggressive/technical faction capturing track narratives (e.g., AI + blockchain, RWA track in 2025), technical breakout (e.g., volume and price rise + large on-chain transfers)

Arbitrage trading professional/institutional cross-exchange price difference arbitrage (e.g., price difference between Coinbase and Binance), perpetual contract funding rate arbitrage (annualized 15%-30%)

3. Key abilities: Build the 'three-force model'

Technical analysis ability:

Master the Bitcoin 'four-hour level' MACD divergence + Bollinger Bands breakout combination strategy

Identify altcoin 'false breakout traps' (e.g., after breaking resistance, volume does not increase by 3 times)

Information judgment ability:

Track Federal Reserve policies (e.g., reduce positions 30 minutes before CPI data release)

Analyze on-chain data (e.g., whale address movements, exchange balance changes)

Emotional control ability:

Strictly enforce stop-loss discipline (e.g., unconditional liquidation if a single loss exceeds 15%)

Avoid FOMO (e.g., not chasing after altcoins that rise more than 50% in one day)

4. Pitfall avoidance guide: Three survival rules

Leverage usage red line: Novice leverage rate ≤ 20x, professional traders ≤ 50x

Capital allocation iron rule: Bitcoin position ≥ 50%, altcoins ≤ 30%, cash ≥ 20%

Project screening criteria: Reject white paper plagiarism (e.g., directly copying Ethereum's codebase)

Beware of the 'three no projects' (no technological breakthrough, no application scenario, no institutional endorsement)

Lastly, a reminder that making money in the crypto circle is essentially a process of cognitive realization + risk pricing. It is recommended that 90% of investors focus on dollar-cost averaging Bitcoin, while 10% of professional players enhance returns through altcoin rotation + arbitrage, but always prioritize 'capital safety' as the first principle.

$DOGE $PEPE $SOL

#币安Alpha上新 #加密货币总市值重回3万亿 #加密市场反弹