Source: The Block
Ark Invest uses a new experimental method and expects Bitcoin's price to reach $2.4 million in a bull market scenario by 2030.
Price Prediction
Ark Invest raises its bullish price prediction for Bitcoin to $2.4 million, up from a previous prediction of $1.5 million, based on a new specialized approach.
Price Scenarios:
Bull Market: $2.4 million
Baseline: $1.2 million
Bear Market: $500,000
Analyst David Puell pointed out in a report on Thursday that the initial bull market price target for 2030 is approximately $1.5 million. However, using the latest experimental model, Ark has predicted a price of $2.4 million in a bull market scenario by excluding lost or long-held Bitcoins.
Growth Rate and Market Models
The report states that the bullish price prediction is based on a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 72% from the end of 2024 to the end of 2030. These price estimates are also modeled based on expected total addressable market size and market penetration.
In the new experimental approach, Puell described it as more 'aggressive' than Ark's official model, with the report estimating a baseline price of $1.2 million (calculated with a 53% CAGR), while the bear market price is projected to be $500,000 (calculated with a 32% CAGR).
Influencing Factors
Puell also noted that Bitcoin's use as digital gold contributes the most to the reported bear and baseline scenarios, while 'institutional investment contributes the most to our bull market scenario.'
He mentioned that the use of Bitcoin in emerging markets is another key factor. He stated: 'The low entry barrier of Bitcoin provides individuals with internet access in emerging markets an alternative investment option that could lead to capital appreciation over time, rather than a defensive allocation like the dollar to maintain purchasing power and avoid depreciation of the local currency.'
Puell also added: 'We believe this more experimental research highlights that Bitcoin's scarcity and lost supply are not reflected in most valuation models today.'
