Bitcoin has been hovering around $93,800 these past two days, on the verge of challenging the $95,000 mark. This wave of market activity is fierce, even traditional finance is starting to feel anxious!
Breaking news: The Federal Reserve has just abolished the strict regulatory policies of 2022, and banks can now play more freely with cryptocurrency and US dollar stablecoin businesses. Remember those regulatory letters that made banks anxious last year? All invalidated! The Federal Reserve now states: "We will continue to regulate crypto businesses, but we will no longer target them specifically."
Even more exciting, word from Washington suggests that the legendary (21st Century Financial Innovation and Technology Act) (referred to as FIT21) may debut by the end of April! This is the first comprehensive legislation in U.S. history to regulate digital assets, which received bipartisan support when it passed the House last May. The most impressive aspect of the bill is:
1. Clearly delineates between security tokens (regulated by the SEC) and commodity tokens (regulated by the CFTC)
2. DePIN projects recognized as digital commodities can develop freely
3. Projects can self-verify decentralization, does the SEC want to oppose? They must act within 60 days!
Market Dynamics
1. Bitcoin spot ETFs have been crazily attracting funds for four consecutive days, with single-day inflows exceeding $900 million on April 22 and 23
2. However, Ethereum is showing weakness, with spot ETF funds continuing to flow out, and the price dropping below $1,800
3. The Fear and Greed Index surged to 63 (greed zone), compared to the traditional finance's 29 (fear zone), showing that crypto players are indeed bold
Expectations for a rate cut in June heat up as two heavyweight officials from the Federal Reserve make their latest statements:
Christopher Waller: "If high tariffs hamper employment, I support lowering interest rates"
Beth Hammack: "As long as the data supports it, action may be taken in June"
The FedWatch tool from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange shows that while the May meeting may hold steady, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in June is rising. JPMorgan analyst Myles Bradshaw further predicts: "The Federal Reserve may ultimately be forced to cut rates more aggressively"
History to repeat itself? The current trend closely resembles late 2016:
At that time, Bitcoin increased by 29.2% in a month, followed by a staggering 1369% surge in 2017
Exchange deposit amounts have reached a new high since December 2016
Future Outlook:
In the past two weeks, Bitcoin has surged 13.3%, coupled with a decrease in exchange reserves and a strengthened holding mentality, providing ample upward momentum. If this is truly a replay of the 2016 market, we may be standing at the starting point of a super bull market. Will we break historical highs? Perhaps faster than anyone imagines!