BTCUSD Analysis
Bitcoin (BTC) has entered a consolidation phase after three days of a strong uptrend. Prices surpassed the key benchmark's $94,000 mark on Wednesday, hitting their highest price in over a month. Having briefly breached this key threshold, the cryptocurrency has retreated back to the 92,500 region to process growth and reconsider future actions. The recent surge comes in the wake of a sudden change in stance from former U.S. President Donald Trump, who took a softer stance on tariffs on China and softened his criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. As political tensions ease, overall market sentiment appears to be improving, with Bitcoin recovering more than half of its losses since its January high. The token's return to a seven-week high is a notable development in a trading environment that has previously been volatile and cautious.
Despite this price rally, fundamental momentum indicators indicate that upward pressure is starting to weaken, suggesting a temporary pullback or even a prolonged period of sideways trading. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), which has been steadily rising towards the overbought zone, is now below the 70 level, suggesting that the upward momentum may slow. Similarly, the Stochastic Oscillator is moving in the overbought zone, which indicates that the asset is nearing the saturation point of buying interest. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains in positive territory but is losing momentum and remains below the red signal line, which is often interpreted as a signal of strength or weakness.
If Bitcoin fails to sustain the psychologically important $93,000 level, it may come under pressure in the short term. The first support on the downside is likely to be near the 90,893 level. This level is in line with the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the short-term ascending trend line that marked the beginning of the recent uptrend. A decisive break below this support level could result in bigger losses. The next major support level is near the 88,800 level. This level corresponds to the 200-day simple moving average and marked the high point of the highly correlated trading range seen in early March. If bearish sentiment continues to grow, attention may turn to the 38.2% Fib retracement of the impressive rally from the January low of 49,560 to the all-time high of 108,941. This Fib area may provide a stronger support base, but it also suggests a significant downside from the current levels.
On the other hand, if the price resumes its uptrend, Bitcoin will soon face resistance near the 23.6% Fib retracement level around 94,927. A breakout in this technical area could certainly bring the psychological 95,000 level to the fore. An intraday close above this round figure would be a strong confirmation of the bullish breakout and could propel the asset to the February high of 96,700. A breakout of this level would likely push the target to 100,000 points, a level that has sparked speculation and excitement among investors.
It is also worth noting that Bitcoin is currently trading above the 100-day simple moving average, confirming a short-term bullish structure. However, to consolidate and sustain the uptrend, the digital asset needs to avoid another drop into the limited range between 77,000 and 86,257. This range will limit price movement for most of March. This sideways channel will act as a consolidation zone, limiting any attempts at a breakout and decline. A return to this range could significantly weaken the optimistic outlook. A breakout above 93,000 would not only help confirm the bullish trend towards a continued uptrend, but would also signal an increase in risk appetite among market participants due to more favorable macroeconomic conditions and further easing of geopolitical tensions.
Overall, Bitcoin's recent performance suggests a recovery in sentiment, but investors should remain cautious. At the current consolidation stage, the question is whether the move will be strong enough to develop into a more sustainable uptrend. Momentum indicators point to some uncertainty, but price action above key support levels remains constructive, and overall technical analysis continues to point to an uptrend. As always in the cryptocurrency market, market conditions can change quickly, and external factors ranging from monetary policy influences to geopolitical trends can be key catalysts in determining its next direction. Currently, maintaining the $93,000 level is the top priority for bulls, while maintaining support at $90,893 remains crucial for Bitcoin to continue its recent strong rally.