In the three months since Trump took office, after a series of upheavals, most policies have failed, and the efficiency department (DOGE) led by the 'domineering CEO' Musk has also essentially failed. The tariff war that hit the global economy and financial markets has caused Trump to back down; apart from being stubborn, there has been no substantial progress.

In these months of repeated turmoil, America's international image and credit have been dragged through the mud. Former allies are no longer eager to be sycophants; they have begun to observe.

Whether it’s Trump or Musk, the core of the turmoil is to resolve the U.S. debt issue, with the national debt ballooning to a staggering $36 trillion, which is already out of control. As the world's largest 'risk-free asset,' the true faith backing U.S. Treasury bonds lies in the delicate balance between U.S. fiscal and monetary policy. If fiscal policy becomes unsustainable, monetary policy must step in, rendering the term 'risk-free' meaningless. Currently, the U.S. faces annual fiscal deficits, constantly borrowing new debts to pay off old ones, creating a snowball effect.

The Federal Reserve is walking a tightrope between high interest rates to suppress inflation and cutting rates to ease fiscal pressure. Originally, after inflation eased, a gradual rate-cutting cycle was expected, but Trump's tariff policies have greatly increased the pressure for stagflation. Coupled with his continuous attacks on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, U.S. Treasuries have been panic-sold.

When government bonds start to fluctuate like high-yield corporate bonds, investors suddenly realize: if even U.S. Treasuries are beginning to waver, what assets are truly safe? When U.S. Treasuries, as the pricing anchor of the global financial market, come under doubt, all pricing logic will change. Global capital is beginning to seek a new 'anchor' that does not rely on sovereignty, credit ratings, or central bank operations. That anchor is gold and Bitcoin.

Gold has surged sharply, and Bitcoin has shown remarkable resilience. The reason Bitcoin can reach new highs is not that the world has become safer, but rather that the risks in the world have become more real. It is not a symbol of prosperity, but a pricing tool of distrust. Every fluctuation in the bond market, every compromise in fiscal policy, and every escalation in trade wars serves as fuel for Bitcoin's rise.

In the short term, Trump has backed down; U.S. stocks, Treasuries, and the dollar have temporarily breathed a sigh of relief, but the U.S. debt crisis has not been substantively resolved. Moreover, after Trump's upheaval, the credibility of dollar assets has come under further scrutiny. Can they return to their previous state? It seems unlikely. U.S. Treasuries will not default, but the ever-expanding debt will force the Federal Reserve to find ways to print money to fill the gaps.

A world of policy imbalance, a world where trust is scarce, a world of debt monetization — this is precisely the source of Bitcoin's greatest bull market.