History does not repeat itself, but data shows that when the dollar index falls below 100, it often becomes the starting point for a frenzy of Bitcoin's rise—
-- April 2017: DXY fell below 100, Bitcoin rose from about $1,200 to $17,600, an increase of over 1,300%.
-- May 2020: DXY fell below 100 again, Bitcoin rose from about $9,500 to $57,500, an increase of about 500%.
-- November 2022: DXY plummeted, Bitcoin rose from about $15,500 to $69,000, an increase of over 300%.
All three rounds demonstrate the logic of 'Dollar Depreciation → Bitcoin Upward'.
Although we cannot mechanically seek solutions, the dollar falling below 100 may be seen as a signal for a cycle shift:
Current market liquidity expectations are improving + the ETF effect has not yet fully materialized + the cycle is entering a recovery phase, there is a probability space for Bitcoin to rise strongly again.
From the perspective of asset allocation, three suggestions:
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Continue dollar-cost averaging but do not chase highs, the cycle is not over, the structure is not peaked, but prices are no longer cheap, maintain a mindset of 'slow is fast'.
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Continue to leave a 20~30% US dollar-based safety margin.
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Pay attention to opportunities in 'sector rotation'.
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