The current cryptocurrency market is at a critical juncture where Bitcoin's dominance is weakening, and the rotation of altcoins is accelerating. Combining on-chain data, institutional trends, and historical patterns, investors need to seize tactical opportunities in Bitcoin's pullback while also positioning themselves in altcoins that have fundamental support. The following analysis will be conducted from three dimensions: market cycles, fund flows, and technical patterns.
The Tactical Value and Risk Boundaries of Bitcoin's Pullback
Nature of Pullback: Technical Correction Rather than Trend Reversal
After Bitcoin breaks through $109,500 in January 2025, it experienced a 26% deep pullback, but long-term holders (LTH) did not sell off massively, and miner selling pressure remained at a median level. On-chain data shows that the current pullback is closer to a 'catch-up' adjustment, similar to the 40% pullback during the 2017 bull market, allowing space for subsequent energy accumulation. From a technical perspective, $80,000 has become a dividing line for bulls and bears; if this support level is held, it may open a channel to $120,000-$150,000; however, caution is needed as short-term holders' cost basis is concentrated around $83,000, which may trigger selling pressure.
Operational Strategy: Staggered Buying and Dynamic Stop-loss
It is recommended to divide funds into 3-5 batches and enter the market in the range of Bitcoin's pullback to the EMA20 (currently around $92,000) to the 50-day moving average ($84,000), increasing positions every 5%-8% decline. The stop-loss point can be set at $78,000 (historical pullback rate of 15% key level), and the profit-taking targets can be divided into three levels: $104,000 (previous high breakout level), $113,000 (Fibonacci 1.618 extension level), and $125,000 (power law model predicted level).
Macroeconomic Risks: Federal Reserve Policies and US-China Trade Friction
Close attention is needed on the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions on US stocks. Historical data shows that when the S&P 500 quarterly drop exceeds 5%, Bitcoin has a 73% probability of following suit. Additionally, external variables such as the Trump administration's tariff policies and the probability of a US economic recession rising to 40% may become 'the last straw that breaks the camel's back.'
The Underlying Logic of Altcoins Breaking Through and Target Selection
Fund Rotation: The Inevitability of Moving from Bitcoin to Altcoins
After Bitcoin's fourth halving, the conditions for capital to shift from Bitcoin to alternative assets have matured. Institutional investors' interest in DeFi protocols and blockchain games is on the rise, US regulatory clarity reduces risks, and BRICS countries are exploring blockchain integration, all of which are driving altcoin market capitalization into a phase of cyclical growth. On-chain data shows a surge in active addresses for networks like Solana and Sui Network, with ETH staking volume continuing to grow, indicating strong demand.
Bottom-fishing Logic: Technical Oversold and Fundamental Resonance
Taking LINK as an example, as a core infrastructure for DeFi and RWA, it recently reached a collaboration with the NYSE and NVIDIA, improving data verification speed by three times, with staking volume surging 40% month-on-month, and the probability of ETF approval exceeding 90%. Currently, it is consolidating around $18, and breaking through $30 is just a matter of time. SUI, due to rumors of Meta layoffs, once dropped to $2.86, but the long-tailed bullish line on February 25 showed that bottom-fishing funds entered; if it breaks through the 20-day moving average of $3.28, it is expected to challenge the $3.74 resistance level, with a short-term rebound potential exceeding 30%.
Risk Control: Focus on Tracks and Profit-taking Discipline
It is recommended to prioritize tracks with clear application landing such as AI, DeFi, RWA, Layer 2, and to avoid purely conceptual Meme coins. A staggered buying strategy is also applicable to altcoins, such as dividing funds into three batches and increasing positions when breaking through the 20-day moving average, the 50-day moving average, and previous high resistance levels. Regarding profit-taking discipline, it is suggested to set a profit-taking line of 10%-15% to avoid chasing after selling too early.
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