Master discusses hot topics:
The market trend is indeed different from what everyone expected. Many previously thought that if the strong stocks fell, Bitcoin would not only hold up but also surge against the trend. However, last night, strong stocks rose by more than 2%, and Bitcoin not only did not rise but also fluctuated slightly.
Today is the last trading day of the week, and next week we will start to factor in GDP. The latest GDPNow data has also lowered the expected GDP for the first quarter in the U.S., which is a significant indicator for trading difficulties in May.
Recently, Bitcoin's performance has indeed been somewhat zen; although the price has seen minor pullbacks, investor sentiment remains quite stable with no significant ups and downs. The turnover rate has decreased, indicating that trading enthusiasm is not high.
For medium to long-term perspectives, the support level at 83k is still somewhat precarious. The main reason is that this level hasn't experienced a major washout, making it unstable. Meanwhile, the number of people holding positions in the 93 to 98k range is increasing, and these people tend to be quite patient.
Especially for investors who haven't run the 74k before, they are now very calm. To put it simply, they are not short-term players. Currently, there are two hypotheses: if 95k is the top of this rebound, then we are likely to see fluctuations for at least two weeks. The price will consolidate around this area to shake off the indecisive traders.
If 95k is not the top or the top has not yet arrived, then the fluctuation time may be longer, and the price will fluctuate upwards. But don't expect it to shoot up too quickly, as it will gradually wear you out.
Regarding the current situation, I need to clarify a few points. First, don't try to short at the top. If you're thinking of catching the top and going all in on a short position now? Confusing, brother. The timing is wrong, the structure is wrong, it's too early, trend-based shorts have no chance right now.
Next, we need to return to short-term trading. The wave of market activity that started at 75k was a good time for long positions, and everyone made good profits. But now? The structure is gone, and it has turned into a short-term trader's market. Quick in and out, no attachment.
Starting next week, GDP data will become quite important. GDPNow has already lowered its expectations. If the official data also disappoints, the strong stocks may waver, but how it plays out will still depend on emotional transmission.
However, from the current perspective, Bitcoin investors seem quite calm and are unlikely to collapse easily. Focus on short-term trading, watch the support at 83k and the pressure from 93 to 98k, and don't always bet on trends!
Master's view on the trend:
Resistance level reference:
First resistance level: 94700
Second resistance level: 94000
Support level reference:
First support level: 92500-92800
Second support level: 91900
Today's suggestion:
Bitcoin is currently attempting a complete trend reversal. Especially within the rebound range, if the price can gain buying support and does not break below the previous low after the consolidation, we can expect a stair-step rise.
Additionally, the key is whether the current price can remain stable and not break below important previous lows. This is also an important basis for judging trend continuity.
Prices at integer points like 93K and 94K may psychologically form resistance. Within the rebound range, there may be temporary pullbacks in the psychological support area.
If the price successfully breaks through the first resistance at 94k, the target can be adjusted to 94.7K. 94.7K is an important resistance level before reaching 95K. If a slight adjustment occurs at this time, it may provide an opportunity for further upward movement.
Yesterday's 92.5K is an important support level. As the chart shows a rebound trend, the support level also needs to be adjusted upwards to the range of 92.5 to 92.8 to better set the risk-reward ratio for risk management.
To maintain the current rebound momentum, the price should ideally hold within the range of 92.5 to 92.8. If it falls below this range, it may drop to the previous low of 91.9K formed yesterday. In a low trading volume situation, this low point can serve as an ultra-short entry opportunity.
4.25 Master Plan:
Long entry reference: light long positions in the range of 91900-92500. Target: 94000-94700
Short entry reference: not currently applicable