According to the latest data, the expected probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates from May to July:

On May 8, the probability of maintaining the interest rate was 93.4%, and the probability of a 25 basis point cut was 6.6%;

On June 19, the probability of maintaining the interest rate was 38.7%, the probability of a 25 basis point cut was 57.4%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut was 3.9%;

On July 31, the probability of maintaining the interest rate was 9.7%, the probability of a 25 basis point cut was 43.4%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut was 43.9%.

It is worth noting that the expectation of a rate cut in June increased by 3.1% compared to the previous day, and the market's expectation for a rate cut is gradually strengthening.