Today's Ethereum sees a decline
1. Recent price trend is weak
Since entering 2025, Ethereum's price trend has remained under pressure. Taking the performance of the Invesco Galaxy Ethereum ETF (QETH) on April 24 as an example, the stock price closed at $17.6, down $0.26 from the previous day, a decrease of 1.46%. During the trading session, the stock price fluctuated between $17.42 and $17.75. This price trend reflects the market's lack of short-term confidence in Ethereum, with selling pressure gradually gaining the upper hand.
Looking back at the recent overall market, on April 7, 2025, affected by the sharp drop in Bitcoin prices, Ethereum's price fell by more than 12%, dropping to $1540. Although there was a subsequent rebound, it has not effectively broken through the key resistance level, and the rebound momentum is obviously insufficient. From the daily K-line chart perspective, Ethereum's price shows a series of continuously lower lows and higher highs that are difficult to reach new highs, technically forming a downward channel, displaying a clear weak pattern.
2. Technical indicators issue bearish signals
Relative Strength Index (RSI): Currently, Ethereum's four-hour RSI value hovers around 45, in a neutral to weak area, with a trend of further downward movement. When the RSI falls below 50, it usually indicates that bearish forces in the market are starting to gain an advantage, increasing the risk of price declines. Moreover, from the trend of the RSI indicator, its recent rebounds have failed to effectively break through the 55 resistance level, showing that bullish strength is gradually depleting, making it difficult to organize a strong counterattack.
Moving Average (MA): Ethereum's price has currently fallen below several important moving averages. On the four-hour chart, the price is not only below the 50-period EMA (approximately $1780), but the 5-period EMA has crossed below the 10-period EMA, further suppressing price upward movement. On the daily level, the 20-day moving average (approximately $1820) has also become an important resistance above, and the price has failed to hold above this moving average after multiple attempts, indicating that both short-term and mid-term face significant downward pressure.
Exponential Smoothing Difference Moving Average (MACD): Regarding the MACD indicator, the MACD fast and slow lines on the four-hour chart are operating below the zero axis, and the bearish momentum bars are continuously increasing, indicating that selling pressure in the market continues to strengthen. At the same time, the DIF line (fast line) remains below the DEA line (slow line), and the distance between the two is gradually widening, showing that bearish strength is continuously reinforcing, making it difficult for Ethereum's price to reverse the downtrend in the short term.
3. Significant outflow of market funds
Exchange fund direction: Recently, significant signs of fund outflow from Ethereum on major cryptocurrency exchanges have been observed. According to on-chain data analysis, the amount of Ethereum flowing out of exchange wallets has continued to increase over the past week, indicating that investors are selling Ethereum in large quantities and transferring it to cold wallets and other storage methods to avoid the risk of price declines. The large withdrawal of funds has further increased the selling pressure on Ethereum in the market, creating a notable downward drag on prices.
Institutional fund attitude: Although there is some inflow of institutional funds into the overall cryptocurrency market, the holding situation regarding Ethereum shows that institutional investors do not have a strong willingness to increase their holdings in Ethereum. Compared to Bitcoin's important position in institutional investors' asset allocation, Ethereum has relatively low institutional attention. The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) premium rate has risen to +12%, while the premium rate of Ethereum trust products (such as Grayscale Ethereum Trust) remains at a low level, and even experiences discounts during certain periods, indicating that institutional funds are cautious about Ethereum's prospects and lack the motivation to actively buy and drive up prices.
4. Potential negative impact of fundamental factors
Slow upgrade process of Ethereum 2.0: The upgrade to Ethereum 2.0 aims to address its scalability and security issues, but the current upgrade process remains relatively slow. Although the merger upgrade was completed in September 2022, transitioning from proof of work to proof of stake and reducing energy consumption, subsequent critical upgrade stages like sharding have not progressed as expected. This has led to Ethereum not standing out in performance and efficiency when facing competition from emerging public chains, affecting developers' and investors' confidence in its long-term development.
Intensifying competition: In the field of smart contract platforms, Ethereum is facing fierce competition from many emerging public chains. For example, Solana attracts a large number of DeFi and NFT projects with its technological advantages such as high throughput and low transaction costs, posing a substantial threat to Ethereum in the market share competition. At the same time, other public chains like Cardano and Polkadot are also continuously improving their ecosystems in an attempt to get a share of the pie. The intensifying competition makes it more challenging for Ethereum to attract new users, new projects, and funds, which to some extent also suppresses its price increase potential.
Macroeconomic uncertainty: The current global macroeconomic environment has many uncertain factors, such as adjustments to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and geopolitical conflicts. During periods of economic instability, investors tend to prefer more stable investment targets or choose to hold cash to avoid risks. As a risk asset, Ethereum is more susceptible to capital outflows in this environment, leading to price declines. Furthermore, if the macroeconomic situation worsens, both enterprises and individuals may reduce their investment in blockchain technology applications, which could affect the development and prosperity of the Ethereum ecosystem.
