Last night, the three major US stock indices collectively surged, with the S&P rising over 2%, the Dow up 1.2%, and the Nasdaq soaring nearly 3%.
With this momentum, I originally thought Bitcoin should follow up and hit 9500, but it only managed to reach a maximum of 9350 after a whole night of hesitation, clearly not keeping up with the pace.
Today the market indeed looks strong for the bulls. I initially placed a long order at 9150, but it only dipped to 9160 at the lowest, just 10 dollars away and I couldn't get in, what terrible luck. Later, seeing that the price didn't continue to pull back, I flipped and opened a short position at 9350, which dropped to a minimum of 9260 but I didn’t close it, and then it was pulled back to the breakeven point triggering a stop-loss. This operation has been quite frustrating.
Now, the key positions are very clear: 9100 is the starting point of the recent large bullish candle, providing strong support; above, 9500 is the previous high resistance level from March. In the short term, I estimate it will oscillate in the 400-dollar range between 9100 and 9500, and we'll see what direction it takes.
Regarding the future trend, I ponder three possibilities:
If it breaks below 9100 and drops to around 8800 for a washout, it could actually accelerate to 9800. If it can't hold 8800, there’s a high probability it will drop to 8400, forming a double top structure with the April high of 9500. The most optimistic scenario is holding 9100 and consolidating for a few days, then directly breaking through 9500 to surge to 9800, making a final push towards the 10,000 dollar mark.
Personally, I lean towards the first two scenarios, especially if it doesn’t break 9490 before the end of the month, it can basically be confirmed that it will follow a double top downtrend. Right now, the most headache-inducing part is that the market hasn't given a clear signal, so I can only watch and wait.
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